Refining my options

Time for idea stealing time again.

I have watched the refiners, shippers and banks fall off a cliff the past few months... just to name a few sectors.

I have also contemplated buying a few times. Then one of my frequented blogs comes up with one of the companies i have done some quick research on Tesoro. Now i have looked at the numbers, compared it to Valero, Sunoco and a few others and know that when oil falls refining margins 'should' get better.

This blog post highlighted some things that i didn't know about Tesoro and its growth prospects. Now if oil prices continue down or remain stable, this i don't know, Tesoro should be a good hold for a few years.

I figured that now would be a good time to look at my 'options' and see what i can do besides just buying shares at todays price.

My first thought was to sell puts. Selling a Jan put with $12.50 strike yields 10% minimum (on initial purchase price) in 2 months with the price staying above $9.7. If it goes to $12.50 i just got $3.7/share for free or 38% of todays $9.7.

A Jan call for $5 strike is $5.2. So anything above $10.2 is all profit and anything below i will have a small or large loss. I get 2-1 leverage with this idea, but it doesn't merit the risk to me since i doubt Tesoro will fall another 50% from here.

I like the Jan '10 calls a little better. $5 strike is going for $6.2, but offers another 12 months of time. Slightly less than 2-1 ratio. If i wanted to buy 200 shares it would cost almost $2000. By using this call option i can control 300 shares for less than $2000. The 4% dividend is not enough incentive for me to buy the 200 vs controlling 300.

For the additional 12 months my time cost is $0.085/month. If Tesoro reachs only $12 by Jan 2010 my return on 200 shares is 28%. Not bad but what happens if i controlled 300 shares.

I lost the $0.40 dividend (which was taxed as income in Canada anyways), but my return was only 12.9%. Hmmm how about $14? 48% for owned vs 61% for controlled. As you can see the breakeven for this trade is around $13.5.

I think Tesoro has a good shot of being $20 or better. The margin gets better as the price goes up. At $20 the return is 110% owned vs. 142% controlled.

read Randolph's blog, from my favourites, as to why you should like Tesoro at these prices.

D

put it to the man!

Here is a free tip from Warren Buffet.

Go to Sedar and read what he does. That's it.

Oh and for a laugh read his annual letters @ Berkshire's website. Note the frills and gimmicks that this site offers!

What i am referring to is Warrens most recent action. He has been selling puts and lots of them. Now why would anyone 'sell' puts in a bear market you ask? Easy.

He as always is confident in his assessment in a company and bets just so. Instead of just paying market prices for Burlington Northern he just sells puts. Now he is getting these shares for less than current price.... or he just made some quick money with no money.

Now i don't have much money left to play with. I am in the same situation that Collectors Universe and Connacher Ceo's were recently. Well not exactly but i may as well be. Prices are so low and continue to fall. My wife is scared out of her wits and so i agree to remove half money (which was in cash anyways waiting for cheap deals) and put it on the mortgage. Hmmm. Don't you hate it when outside of the market forces effect your decisions!

Anyways to make my point, if you find companies that you deem cheap why not look to see if selling puts on them could lower your price even further?

A few final thoughts. This has been a brutal month. It was only a few % and days away from being the worst month for the markets in the past 100 years. Sept 1931 will still stand for now as the late October rally stands. Horrible no good very bad market. To say this market is bad would be just slightly understating it.

I would like to put some money in the market by borrowing against my home equity. I am, or should i say my wife, not quite comfortable with this idea yet. One company i have on my radar is akt.a. This company is still making money with no debt, several dollars per share in cash.

I am part way through 'Common stocks uncommon profits' and find it a very intriguing book.

to be continued. ..

painful reminder

Well some quick math done on my August 24th covered call writing idea with DML and TLM resulted in some numbers..

Break even on TLM and -25% on DML ... before commission. I can't guess all market melt downs?

In light of recent events i have thought or pondered covered calls on some beatin down oils. Buying Mastercard or Ingersoll-Rand has crossed my mind too.

If i wanted to bet on too cheap maybe Cott corp or Abitibi? Buy highly leveraged banks or the two just mentioned cause they both have the same risk reward profile.

DH

Volatility anyone?

Well first off i have the time and secondly its historic times so i am posting often right now.

I added some books and a new blog. My 'to read' list is growing faster than i read.

I like options, but one has to wonder if they will be the undoing of our banks and lenders? I still wonder why some would take a trade which has unlimited risk for only a miniscule payday? Selling naked calls is one such idea.

As i work nights i can only read about are markets after the 'fun' has happened. Would i have had the guts to invest at noon yesterday? Well depends in what i guess, but like several articals i have read said "who's bailing out the fed when its in trouble".

Well i am going to try to get some shut eye. Hope everyone enjoys Friday fun day. Options expiring should only enhance our fun levels. I will update you on what i already know will be dreadful results for my past strategies next weekend.


DH

My reality TV

Whoo,

more exciting than a roller coaster ride and much easier (yes easier) on my stomach!

This market is exciting (many bad things get your heart racing good or bad) and keeps you on your toes. I wonder who will go bankrupt today?

Another excerpt from an email to a family member who asked if i was watching the markets... LOL.

The actual question

"So...what do you think of the markets this week? Are you watching closely or are you more of a ride out the storm kind of guy? "

My simple answer was Yes to both.

Email quote:

>>>>>>
I lost over $5k today in my investment account. Very sad now as i doubt that i have a good shot at winning this contest! What and you thought i was talking about real money?? lol.



In my real investment play account i am down this week $500-$1000. Not good, but not as bad as most. I am also 40% cash and have been most of this year waiting for this sort of melt down.



My RRSP is down worse. I am fully invested right now (i had a little money in cash that i invested Monday morning>>>> whoops.



In answer to your questions yes to both. I am in a good position. Sure if the markets continue to fall it looks bad, but i have many years at which i am adding money at these lower levels. My match RRSP at work adds 18% of our salary yearly and it goes up as our pay does.



I am also adding to RESP's and a cash (emergency account). If interest rates rise these may be reduced or suspended to pay additional interest.



The wife is mad at me (she has reason). I am watching the market fervently. I entered a contest this week and stuff has sold off big time everywhere. Regardless of that when large firms like Merril Lynch and AIG are going under simultaneously we are watching history. So i am riveted by the markets right now although i am doing little with any real investments (I thought about buying some silver companies today). This stuff is my reality TV.



I love how the US government bails out any and all comers. Wanna invest like a fool with Billions of other peoples money and get paid oodles. Then when you screw up and lose MORE than everything no worries THE FED will bail your 'dumb ass' out. What about those peoples money you lost? Sorry SOL.



I can only hope that lots of financial people go to jail and pay back all those bonuses when they made 'pretend' money.



Due to our dollar erosion i think your US fund should be ok (by ok i mean not the worst performer and you shouldn't lose 'all' your money like some).



Imagine some people who borrowed to invest in companies and lost? Like that oil company i bought yesterday in my 'game' account. It fell almost 50% today.... and that was after falling 50% ytd. (no its not 0 now, but -75% ytd). Hmmm.



People like Sis and others younger stand to benefit from this 'healthy' correction since the market was over extended before. Now when she invests in the coming years the market will be 'on sale'.


'Don't panic, Don't use leverage, and stay the course'. A mix of advice from people smarter than i.

<<<<<< end email.

As you can imagine i have done nothing with options. Premiums are through the roof. Spreads are absurdly large. It really makes them tough to use. That said Selling puts on CDE at $5 strike a few months out might work. I wonder if just buying the shares would be easier however due to the large spreads.

Enjoy the show!

DH

Risk aversion

'Danger Will Rogers'

while i can't remember where this saying came from it sums up what i think of the markets right now and short term.

An excerpt of a recent email i sent to a friend for your amusment:

>>>>>
Wow that was funny. Its nice when you pay for subscriptions to things that people don't know answers too! He does have some good points, but at least he admitted nobody really knows what the market will do. I agree with most of what he said. Part of the reason i haven't bought into the 'all commodities' portfolio was because of what he said. Too many fools on margin bidding it up too high and then forced into selling.



I adapted my 'sell down to the sleep level' a few years ago. While i still may use small bits of leverage here and there with my margin account or using the dreaded derivates in small doses. I have foolishly not followed my own advice to myself last summer and start buying some puts here and there. My account has been 30%+ cash for all of '08 and as the markets drift down i haven't bought a call option in months. I in fact love the possibilities of derivates (both long and short)... if used correctly and in moderation. Who knew?



I am really shaking my head on U stocks far more than any other commodity. Ag's are still high, golds so so, silver is better, but U's have been slaughtered and are probably the most useful of the bunch. The U price has been stable too; unlike gold, oil, corn, whatever, etc. As forced selling continues i still like buying railways, and JNJ or Proctor Gamble style companies over gold/silver (for the most part and long term).



I have to wonder how much more US financials and companies will fall before they enter the bargin bin or the Fannie/Freddie sin bin. Is AIG heading down the same Goldman Sachs road? I have tried to find 'the best' US financials and only 2 so far make me modestly comfortable: BBT and WFC. I think as BAC buys more companies it may be hurt as the unwinding continues.. '
<<<<<<<<<<

I wrote a few more paragraphs, but none of it really matters here. My point it that if i were a true gambler i would be buying large amounts of call options on CCO, PDN, DML. As these free fall due to 'margin call' forced selling at this level of baby bathwater has never been so enticing?!

With oil falling down and gas in the tank scarce do refiners like SUN-N and VLO-N stand to profit? Squeezed to death by record oil prices these guys have old refineries, but we have nothing to replace them? I think railways fit into the almost perfect moats too as gas/diesel prices rise.

Well one thing i can tell you for certain, my advice is worth what you paid for it!

DH

Whoops

Well after this large market swoon perhaps now is the time to do what i previously purposed with those same companies. What a difference a few weeks makes? The companies must of all had huge write downs announced cause how else can you explain them all falling 30%. The markets are efficient after all right so this can be logically explained right?

My logic would be these companies were over bid with leveraged money and many of them still aren't making much money at record prices for gold, silver, oil, etc.

I have as usual done little or actually nothing with my investments except to add to my ever growing watchlist, delete a few (LEH,FNM, which i watched for fun) and join a few contests.

I like contests. Especially ones with good prizes. While Wallstreetsurvivor.com has some interesting and less enticing prizes it is still better than no contest. I dislike this contest because my focus on Canadian companies does little for me since its only US companies or dual listed shares. BUT..

enter the latest contest @ stockstar.ca and its filled with great prizes and canadian trading. 'd2cold' is my ID, which it always is, and i plan to use my usual 'go for broke' strategy which has served me well in contests.

I of course would never use my 'contest' strategy with real money, but its fun to see what would happen if i ever had the guts.

I updated my networth much to my dismay as my registered account fell 10% in the last 3 months and thats including adding an additional 3%+ via dollar cost averaging. Ouch!

I've been too burnt on buying BVF calls this year, but it would have been nice had i bought Oct $12 @ Thursday's close. Its almost doubled by Friday's close. Hmmm.

I may sell puts on CDE if i fell risky and buy perhaps DML, CCO, TLM, SLW. Well see i have others on my 'want' list too.

DH

actual options artical

Figured i should do a little number crunching on options for a change.

Since i am playing with less cash and my financial situation has changed (larger mortgage and less savings) i am not into taking big risks.

So this limits my options, no pun here, to what i can buy and sell covered calls on without commissions killing my 'possible' profits.

TLM, UUU, IMG, DML, PDN, ELD, LUN, S and TDG all came up when i tried to look for companies with recent moves down, optionable and in the under $20 club. My reasons here are simple. I want to limit my capital into any one trade to be under $2000 yet i need at least 100 shares of any company in order to 'play' with options.

I quickly eliminated IMG, UUU, ELD, TDG, and LUN because they were not offering as good a premium or hadn't fallin as much.

I liked TLM, DML and PDN best. All offered a one month premium/capital gain combination of about 6% (September expiry). All were fairly beaten up recently. I may try a TLM ($!8.42 close)covered call for $0.6 premium @ Sept $19 strike. DML and PDN seem more attractive simply because i can get 300 shares for the price of 100 TLM and write 2 more covered calls for only $1-2 added dollars.

DML would take in $0.3 /share for $6 Sept call. With 300 shares that would be $90 taken in less $14 commission. On TLM i would take in $0.6 * 100 shares = $60 - commission of $12. So using $1600 in DML yields $90 vs $48 in TLM on $1800. Of course TLM has the room to grow $0.6 without my shares being taken.

Maybe selling some BVF (100sh) and using PNSN profits ($1800) would free up the money so i could buy 200 DML and 100 TLM. Hmm i just thought about selling a put on these shares too... Will have to look at that for a double dip.

If i was into being risky i may be buying calls on S. Has a nice diversified portfolio and still has good earnings. Earnings were hurt recently by lower metal prices and lots of dilution to pay for acquisition's.

On a side note i played with the Manulifeone calculator to see what 'my number' was? Turns out according to Manu my magic number was $24000 and i could retire my debt years sooner. In small print however they mention some monthly fees for the account 'maintenance fees'. Hmm more fees?

I had to put my savings onto my debt for this to work. What i didn't calculate was my 'savings' is actually mostly invested (60% right now). So i assume Manu gave savings a small, if not tiny number for a return. So far they would be correct, but i hope to reverse this trend.

The way i see it i could dump all savings onto the mortgage and use the HELOC as an emergency fund if need be. I may do this if interest rates rise and my returns continue to disappoint, but for now i am content to stand pat.

Speaking of HELOC's and leveraged borrowing i read an article/speak by Seth Klarman which sorta struck a cord with me. Before this i had been gleefully watching the markets dive and debating using my new found wealth (new HELOC) to invest. I figured that cost of borrowing would be 3% in after tax dollars and a dividend (from CDN company) of 4% would take care of this leaving me with 'money for free'. At least that's what i reasoned.

Well after seeing the markets continue to slide and reading Klarmans speech i am happy to say i haven't borrowed a nickel to invest. Klarman reasoned if leverage is good then more leverage is better so where does it end? Does this sound like a made in US mess or what? He goes on to point out that leverage forces us to make poor investment decisions that become out of our control.

While the smith maneuver may be the argument for leveraged investing many logical reasons remain for the 'not to do this' camp. I figure i don't need the added risk to reach my financial goals and would just add unwanted risk to my plan.

musings

I have dumped PNSN after a nice gain. I almost and should have deployed that capital into San gold resources, which i told a friend i would buy below $1.5 if the opportunity rose. Well i am a liar. I watched it touch $1.35 and did nothing. Now its $1.6 ish.

I have also added Aldila to my watch list. It is a unique company which i have used their products and like. I stumbled upon it using some new screens available on google finance. Has good cash flow and a pretty balance sheet. Company has a product with some moatish properties, but this US economy could hurt earnings.

CLCT is almost break even for me after my average down and latest dividend payment. CGS and BVF not so lucky.

As the market volatility continues so does my lack of buying options. Too much volatility premiums for me... but not enough for me to write covered calls and justify the risk involved. While i pondered it with PNSN i am still toying with the idea of writing calls on bvf. I wonder how long they will pay the dividend with their new strategy of growth? I suspect '08 will be the last full year they payout nice dividends if any? Dividend policy is too big a cash burn.

A friend is buying MGM and LEH. While i continue to look for balance sheets and business's i can grasp he continues to speculate. He has more money available to lose than i (he has no mortgage, wife or kids). We both owned shares of CGS (last we talked a few weeks ago) which is my spec asset play.

Some article i read said Canadian western bank was the best of Canadian banks to own now. I don't agree and seeing house price's slide in Alberta adds to my pessimism. Now that i have recently bought a newer house and dramatically increased my mortgage i take notice of these headlines more.

While i have no illusions that my house can't fall in price i was heading into this purchase half expecting it. I was already in the housing market so i was destined to lose anyways. I am not planning to flip and i have 50% equity, at current levels, in my house. Amortized at 15 years its comfortable, but i still dislike debt all the same. I wish my wife had this same disdain for debt?

One last company i am looking at is liquidation world. Its very thinly traded and in a sector which stands to suffer if downturn gets worse. But another value investor i follow, see CKI-T, bought and seems to like the story? I continue to watch with interest.

Seth Klarman is another investor i have been reading about. Interesting stuff.

I have done less market watching than normal since my daughter was born last week and likely will continue this trend for a few more months.

markets

Well its been a rough month in the markets thus far. I watched many banks melt and then come back some after falling. BAC, BMO, and WFC were the ones i watched closest.

If i had a few more dollars to spare i may of bought calls on some last week, but it is now too late. I have some spare cash, but that should be put to work shortly by my wife and her furniture shopping for our new house.

What little cash i did have i used to average down on t.CGS and N.CLCT ($2.50 and $7.50 respectively) which was prematurely early as both fell further.

I had to laugh when Citi group 'beat expectations' by only losing 2.5 BILLION! this quarter. Wow how many businesses can say we had a good quarter cause we only lost a couple billion?

I am contemplating on selling out some of BVF if it gets up over $12. I could also write covered calls on the remaining shares. I fear that after the next vote for the new board it will still be the old board. The market is telling us this isn't good because last vote shares fell after it was announced who won.

I personally like Eugene's board better than the current slave proposed. Seems to have less risk in the new alternative.

Two other companies have come to my attention from reading the many blogs, articles and sedar/edgar reports. WLP-N seems to be popular with the larger Value guys (Buffett, Klarman). UNH-N is in the same sector and equally beatin up.

Refiners VLO-N and SUN-N have fallin 50% in a short period and oil is now dropping. Refiners can't lose money for too long. Eventually prices will catch up and these might be good picks.

CUS.UN-T got below $4 briefly and still has a good yield. GCI-N has a similar chart to CGS-T and appears to be going bankrupt (according to the chart). This sector is getting hit bad with all the recession fears flying around.

I hate to break the bad news, but we've been in a recession (in US) for a year now and possilbly longer. Canada appears to be heading that way, but likely not as bad (hopefully).

I watch all sectors in order to try and bottom fish for some 'cheap companies'. LUN-T ($5.09) and BWR-T ($0.35) seem to be two that are distressed right now. For different reasons. LUN has aquired many companies and is trying to swallow them still. BWR is just not getting its costs in order and needs to improve margins.

Besides health care companies which continue to drag lower some consumer goods companies are feeling the pinch. One bright spot is K-N which seems to be on an uptrend? SBUX-N has been on a nice slide, and oil companies like TLM-T have pulled back far more and faster than the price of crude.

For a longer term play one might look at CCO-T in the mid $30's or PWF-T below $30 and write covered calls. Both are attractive for differing reasons, but may provide some good yields in a poor market (yield= dividend + call premiums).

DH

dismal performance

Sometimes it is better to do nothing than to do when it comes to investing. Many an article are written on us 'traders' who seem to think we can beat indexes and try to find a formula for it. Most lose to the index. I am 1 for 5 for beating the TSX (last yr i was up 20%+). Every other year i would of been better just to ignore the market. I have only been trading options for the past 2 years however.

Well by now you've figured while i don't have the formula i am not short on ideas and ways to try and find it. Biovail continues to dissappoint. The latest downgrade came yesterday and sent the stock tumbling down more than it went up the previous day.

I by now should have been placing more bets on different ideas. Two quick examples were rumours of BUD-N takeover by Inbev should have prompted me to buy a few calls or atleast sold some puts? Next I don't know what i was thinking in not buying BCE calls. The risk reward should of made for a nice trade. I saw Friday on NY exchange after the close BCE shares up almost 10% or $3.+ .

Now i don't mean to beat a dead horse here (especially at the sake of losing money) but pharma companies for the most part have been destroyed this year. All the big names are down, some more than others, yet they keep falling and the dividend yield keep rising. I need to start buying shares and writing calls on these. PFE, SNY, GSK.

Going forward in my Registered accounts i have continued to invest on dips (money goes in monthly to a money market fund) and have been upping my contributions to US and Overseas funds (much to my own demise).

Some US banks like BAC-N and maybe our own BMO look like possible call writing candidates right now? Attractive yields and suppossed 'ok' balance sheets.

Well little has changed for me. Options expired yesterday and lost another $500 or so on BVF calls. No new buys, but watchlist continues to grow. Trying to find good entry points right now is tough, because the market continues to falter (US) and it feels like good money is just being thrown after bad. I guess thats why investing should have long term objectives with disciplined entry points.

Next update when something exciting happens...

DH

New Post?

Well its about time.

My trading has pretty much been as my blog. Watch and do nothing. Well not exactly, but close.

First off updates regarding trades. My watchlist of CGS, TDG, and AKT.a has done well. The 2 have gone up nicely, both paying dividends along the way. CGS has continued down into the abyss however. I finally got around to buying when i saw other insiders picking up shares around $5. My cost is $4.05. I only bought a few so i can average down if it falls below $3.

I also bought CLCT for $9.75 and PNSN for $12.

I now have a Questrade account set up and its fees are ultra low. So i started buying when i completed that and closing my CIBC edge account.

I still hold BVF and collect the dividend. My average cost after dividends and protective puts is $14.40. I have some outstanding calls (is this a reocurring theme or what?) which expire in June. I hope the new share buy back will help the price up. The board is up for nomination 2 days after my options expire so if they like their jobs they should use the buy back to get the price up some!

MTE-N is a new addition among others to my watch list. Indian telco thats really cheap! The ADR has been hit by falling rupee relative to the US $.

My option trades:

DML: ended at $7.53 when its April option expired. I showed a profit for that of $0.45 which works out to be 5% in 3 months. Also noted was the large volatility and with this written call my max loss at any time in the 3 months was only 3.7%. Seems like this trade went ok.

TLM: very different trade result here. Stock wasn't taken, which turns out to be a good thing. You had downside protection so when the call expired in March the trade was only down just over 1%. BUT right after that the shares have jumped so this trade worked out ok too.

I am really kicking myself right now because i should have been writing calls on BVF for the past few months!

I still see pharmaceuticals cheaper compared to many sectors. KG in the US may now be showing progress.

If only i had bought TCK.b calls in Jan. Wow did that company go on a ride for the past 6 months. Too bad so sad.


One final note: If the wife would let me i would love to load up on CGS shares below $3. I will buy more, but not with the house equity of almost 100k that i was jokingly threatening to use.

DH

Time for an updated post?

Wow i almost forgot about posting. As my trading has been less than profitable during the last quarter i felt it was time for a break. I still watched the market but pretty much sat on my holdings.

My Tck.b calls expired worthless and it has drifted down yet further as evidenced today. So my goal of using calls to manage my downside and get used as swing trades is working.

I will note one thing. As markets increase in volatility the short term moves become larger up or down. If one buys calls or puts on the correct day (key word correct) you could be rewarded handsomely.

I did remind myself that after counting my current poor quarter of 5 or 6 steady trade losses my 07' return was 25%. All driven by one correct 'call' pardon the pun on Sobey's.

I also noted that more than half my calls could have been sold for 50% or more profit instead of a loss and the rest at break even (even Tck.b recently). Only one i would have lost on DML and it would have been less than 1%.

So i will stick to this strategy of using options, but be more prudent in my buying. I will note that at summers end i said buying puts was maybe a good idea? Well i never took my advice and where i wrote that is somewhere in cyber space?

So here i am with only BVF shares. I have BVF calls too, which are set to expire for $0 come Friday. I bought back my BVF puts, which i was grateful to have since it kept my loss to single digits as it fell from my initial buy of $18ish to current $13ish.

Looking at DML and TLM gave me some interesting ideas today. One could buy these shares at closing prices and sell calls for closing bid prices (on Montreal exchange website) and do ok.

DML $8.05 close
April call $7 strike is @ $1.5, which gives you 6% (in 3 months) and downside protection of roughly 18%, which is close to $6 support.

TLM $17.8 close
March call $17 strike @ $1.5, giving you 4% (in 2 months) and downside protection of over 8% which means you start to lose money past $16.3 ($17.8 cost - $1.5 premium collected). Charts also show good support here.

Non option related trades i am looking at include akt.a, tdg.un, & cgs.

I have been watching HD, PFE, C, SSW, KG, WM, WAG, BAC, for possible US option plays.

Canadian banks like CM and BMO with the larger yields may be worth looking after the next crappy earnings report (my guess as i am just following the current banking trend in earnings). Buying and writing calls may make you some money.

I again chickened out to buy puts on AAPL. Maybe time to buy some calls on that stock, but the options are price since its a $160 dollar stock.

One other play on the US banks and other large companies in the US maybe the index JKF.

AC.a and PJC.a look cheap on the Canadian side, but who knows if they can go lower. For a nice picture of a stock NOT to bottom fish (although i did think about it once or twice) is WM in the US (check out the 3 month chart).

One final note: Gold seems to be popular. I am not in it and don't plan too in the near future. I can't seem to grasp why it moves up when the economy tanks. It has little ties to anything except emotion and senitmental value? In a serious economic recession what good is a gold bar on your mantel while you starve (extreme example).

I like pharmaceuticals, everyday product sellers and banks for the near to mid term. Why banks? Well according to my latest reading they lead into a recession and out of it. FIFO accounting method i guess.

D