Sunday, November 25, 2007

update

Well let me see BVF gets early lump of coal Xmas present , gold goes sideways and all else goes down, down, down. I see that those banks and US financials had a better than i figured pop and then went right back south to retest lows until Friday.

I bought calls on TCK.a-T Friday. I think this is the largest CND miner, with a solid dividend, and exposure spread over metals, oil, coal and whatever else. I figured its off because metal prices are down, the high CDN $ and Fording coal is off which Teck owns a large stake in. Going forward Teck is far below the 1 yr low and IF seasonality ever does kick in this one could run so i bought only a DEC call.

It goes away from my time value of 3-6months minimum requirements but then again i expect a bounce soon or not at all so i will sell quick if it goes sideways. The Teck calls have large time premiums so buying months out would mean it would need a large rise to make the trade profitable or go up quick, which means i am better off with the Dec expiry call. The Delta will be better on the Dec and i can leverage my money better ie. more shares for my money put out. Also Teck has a Dividend coming in Dec which should help the share price rise a little.

Ah yes my Xmas present. Well BVF is again full of good news. I lost about $400 on the BVF-033 extended review but it began its descent before that, which brings my total on this to about -$1500 for 3 months. OUCH! Well i bought Jan puts when i bought the stock so i have no downside left until Jan expiry and may buy shares only into this weakness.

I also am looking at calls now for PFE-N (nice week ending spike), BMO-T (this may be better to own puts?), PDN (U prices are stable but market draft has taken them down too, i also like DML or UUU maybe for this sector).

I have looked at lots of oil and service companies as they are all soft right now. The best balance sheet however belongs to AKT.a-T which is not optionable. Well just wait and watch these stocks and maybe PD.un-T will announce a distribution cut to get it into 'on sale' range?

Loblaws has awful earnings again but this is just a watch and see like the drillers its soo beaten up i can't decide to buy calls or puts. I suppose one could buy commons and write calls against it but i would rather do that with BMO-T, PWF-T, or BVF-T.

Still holding my IMG-T calls for Feb expiry. I may just leave this for a while but if it starts to fall with the market i will exit this. Currently at break even.

As the market falls it makes me happy long term but unfortunately my RRSP has little outside equities so i cannot buy into the ongoing weakness for the long term. Dollar cost averaging is still a great strategy for long term investing with this market sell off.

DH