Thursday, January 17, 2008

Time for an updated post?

Wow i almost forgot about posting. As my trading has been less than profitable during the last quarter i felt it was time for a break. I still watched the market but pretty much sat on my holdings.

My Tck.b calls expired worthless and it has drifted down yet further as evidenced today. So my goal of using calls to manage my downside and get used as swing trades is working.

I will note one thing. As markets increase in volatility the short term moves become larger up or down. If one buys calls or puts on the correct day (key word correct) you could be rewarded handsomely.

I did remind myself that after counting my current poor quarter of 5 or 6 steady trade losses my 07' return was 25%. All driven by one correct 'call' pardon the pun on Sobey's.

I also noted that more than half my calls could have been sold for 50% or more profit instead of a loss and the rest at break even (even Tck.b recently). Only one i would have lost on DML and it would have been less than 1%.

So i will stick to this strategy of using options, but be more prudent in my buying. I will note that at summers end i said buying puts was maybe a good idea? Well i never took my advice and where i wrote that is somewhere in cyber space?

So here i am with only BVF shares. I have BVF calls too, which are set to expire for $0 come Friday. I bought back my BVF puts, which i was grateful to have since it kept my loss to single digits as it fell from my initial buy of $18ish to current $13ish.

Looking at DML and TLM gave me some interesting ideas today. One could buy these shares at closing prices and sell calls for closing bid prices (on Montreal exchange website) and do ok.

DML $8.05 close
April call $7 strike is @ $1.5, which gives you 6% (in 3 months) and downside protection of roughly 18%, which is close to $6 support.

TLM $17.8 close
March call $17 strike @ $1.5, giving you 4% (in 2 months) and downside protection of over 8% which means you start to lose money past $16.3 ($17.8 cost - $1.5 premium collected). Charts also show good support here.

Non option related trades i am looking at include akt.a, tdg.un, & cgs.

I have been watching HD, PFE, C, SSW, KG, WM, WAG, BAC, for possible US option plays.

Canadian banks like CM and BMO with the larger yields may be worth looking after the next crappy earnings report (my guess as i am just following the current banking trend in earnings). Buying and writing calls may make you some money.

I again chickened out to buy puts on AAPL. Maybe time to buy some calls on that stock, but the options are price since its a $160 dollar stock.

One other play on the US banks and other large companies in the US maybe the index JKF.

AC.a and PJC.a look cheap on the Canadian side, but who knows if they can go lower. For a nice picture of a stock NOT to bottom fish (although i did think about it once or twice) is WM in the US (check out the 3 month chart).

One final note: Gold seems to be popular. I am not in it and don't plan too in the near future. I can't seem to grasp why it moves up when the economy tanks. It has little ties to anything except emotion and senitmental value? In a serious economic recession what good is a gold bar on your mantel while you starve (extreme example).

I like pharmaceuticals, everyday product sellers and banks for the near to mid term. Why banks? Well according to my latest reading they lead into a recession and out of it. FIFO accounting method i guess.

D