Hindsight via the rear view

As i read a Baupost 1999 shareholder letter some of my past mistakes come back to me and what went wrong. Also some of my biggest misses where for whatever i was thinking at the time my decision was not to buy.

I enjoy Seth, Warren and some others with their candid, witty and sometimes amusing banter, but it does serve a purpose. Much like this blog was started to remind me what i was thinking when i bought or sold some company or to just keep track of some silly option ideas.

I currently hold several positions which for whatever reason my buy idea was motivated more by upside than downside risk.

As Seth says in part of his letter " Many small-cap value managers have been facing investor redemptions, further fueling the selloff. " This reminds me of what happened to CLCT a few years back when it was below net cash value and after removing goodwill impairements, still profitable. To compound matters the shares where further depressed when a CEO had outside company issue's and needed to liquidate shares at multi year lows. Still beat myself up over using a thimble instead of the truck with this one.

My current holdings of Ag.un, ORS, & PNSN have been complete dogs. Combined they are sub 50% for me. Now i might be happy and use some spare change to scoop up more, but sadly this isn't the case.

My greed may have gotten in the way on these. Ag.un is my silly mistake of CGS all over perhaps. Too much debt and not enough wiggle room combined with poor short term market (cooler weather for ice). ORS is just one of those that may lose because it won't get paid.

PNSN is another that is being hit by a current reduced amount of trading, resulting in reduced commissions. It too has suffered from bad credits and with its leverage could be quickly undone. However i first bought hoping or rather to help if interest rates were to rise so would their income. No rise has come and this has helped further depress earnings.

All of these companies have no bottom. With CLCT, AKT.a, and a few others they have tangible assets which make me comfortable in averaging down. Buying some ag.un or CGS might sometimes be a good idea, but averaging down or betting the farm on them sure isn't.

To help with my PNSN i have debated buying calls. I like 3-6 months out calls but can't seem to find any too cheap. If the shares go sideways it may reduce some volatility to all prices to come down.

HNU and AOB calls might also be a good way for me to lose money in a big hurry. HNU has got to be one of the crasiest things to trade. Use derivates to improve leverage and you have a recipe that only the insane would think about using. IF gas prices went up or reversed it could work but lots of risk in this idea. Nov $4 calls @ bid of $0.70 or Mar $4 @ bid of $1.10 are my favourite idea to throw away money today.