As i read a Baupost 1999 shareholder letter some of my past mistakes come back to me and what went wrong. Also some of my biggest misses where for whatever i was thinking at the time my decision was not to buy.
I enjoy Seth, Warren and some others with their candid, witty and sometimes amusing banter, but it does serve a purpose. Much like this blog was started to remind me what i was thinking when i bought or sold some company or to just keep track of some silly option ideas.
I currently hold several positions which for whatever reason my buy idea was motivated more by upside than downside risk.
As Seth says in part of his letter " Many small-cap value managers have been facing investor redemptions, further fueling the selloff. " This reminds me of what happened to CLCT a few years back when it was below net cash value and after removing goodwill impairements, still profitable. To compound matters the shares where further depressed when a CEO had outside company issue's and needed to liquidate shares at multi year lows. Still beat myself up over using a thimble instead of the truck with this one.
My current holdings of Ag.un, ORS, & PNSN have been complete dogs. Combined they are sub 50% for me. Now i might be happy and use some spare change to scoop up more, but sadly this isn't the case.
My greed may have gotten in the way on these. Ag.un is my silly mistake of CGS all over perhaps. Too much debt and not enough wiggle room combined with poor short term market (cooler weather for ice). ORS is just one of those that may lose because it won't get paid.
PNSN is another that is being hit by a current reduced amount of trading, resulting in reduced commissions. It too has suffered from bad credits and with its leverage could be quickly undone. However i first bought hoping or rather to help if interest rates were to rise so would their income. No rise has come and this has helped further depress earnings.
All of these companies have no bottom. With CLCT, AKT.a, and a few others they have tangible assets which make me comfortable in averaging down. Buying some ag.un or CGS might sometimes be a good idea, but averaging down or betting the farm on them sure isn't.
To help with my PNSN i have debated buying calls. I like 3-6 months out calls but can't seem to find any too cheap. If the shares go sideways it may reduce some volatility to all prices to come down.
HNU and AOB calls might also be a good way for me to lose money in a big hurry. HNU has got to be one of the crasiest things to trade. Use derivates to improve leverage and you have a recipe that only the insane would think about using. IF gas prices went up or reversed it could work but lots of risk in this idea. Nov $4 calls @ bid of $0.70 or Mar $4 @ bid of $1.10 are my favourite idea to throw away money today.
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Actual investing comments
Scatter brained thoughts:
Debated buying calls on AOB and PNSN. Shares still falling and i haven't bought.... yet.
Since last post i have bought small amounts of DRX, PAP.a, VCM, CNJ, KSW-N, and added to PNSN and AKT.a. PNSN earnings going down and doesn't look good right now.
Should of sold ORS long time ago. I have that Canwest sinking feeling again.
Started a Canadian dividend watch list and today looked at Pizza trusts which might be added like PZA.un and BPF.un. Of course these are still trusts and not true dividend payers... yet.
Watched in amusment, interest and curiousity as COCO and other colleges get slammed due to some possible Federal loan changes. Same amusment was also used when watching SPB and
RBA has been added on to watchlist. Unsure of a good entry as of yet.
A quick check a few weeks back i had a 5% loss in my 'managed portfolio' vs indexes of S&P, TSX and DJIA all down about 1.5%. At time i was around 40% cash. Nothing really going right. Best gainer has been STMPs followed by NWF.un and ALC.
Biggest losers are ORS, AG.un and PNSN with the latter gaining steam in the wrong direction! All spec plays that should be treated as such and NOT given large amounts of portfolio %'s.
D
Debated buying calls on AOB and PNSN. Shares still falling and i haven't bought.... yet.
Since last post i have bought small amounts of DRX, PAP.a, VCM, CNJ, KSW-N, and added to PNSN and AKT.a. PNSN earnings going down and doesn't look good right now.
Should of sold ORS long time ago. I have that Canwest sinking feeling again.
Started a Canadian dividend watch list and today looked at Pizza trusts which might be added like PZA.un and BPF.un. Of course these are still trusts and not true dividend payers... yet.
Watched in amusment, interest and curiousity as COCO and other colleges get slammed due to some possible Federal loan changes. Same amusment was also used when watching SPB and
RBA has been added on to watchlist. Unsure of a good entry as of yet.
A quick check a few weeks back i had a 5% loss in my 'managed portfolio' vs indexes of S&P, TSX and DJIA all down about 1.5%. At time i was around 40% cash. Nothing really going right. Best gainer has been STMPs followed by NWF.un and ALC.
Biggest losers are ORS, AG.un and PNSN with the latter gaining steam in the wrong direction! All spec plays that should be treated as such and NOT given large amounts of portfolio %'s.
D
I Hate Debt
Well i do some silly things at times.
I focus on many unimportant things, but do so out of compulsivness. A few years ago i bought a bigger, newer, more expensive house. Except for the odd little item this is my only debt.
Here is an overview:
Bought in Aug 2008.
Original mortgage of $175,000 (4% variable amortized over 15 yrs) with payments at $825 * 24 . This was my PIT (principal, interest and tax).
Broken down it was in order $358, $292, $175. I was somewhat happy because i wanted to ensure out of every $1 paid, atleast $0.50 goes to pricipal.
Due to luck and interest rates plummeting i figure another $6k has gone to principal over the last 2 years which always helps.
My current payments 2 years after i started look like:
$955 * 24 which breaks down to $648, $117, $185 (2% variable with amortization of 8.4 yrs). Roughly $0.85 of every dollar goes to my principal right now!
While many focus on how to afford the monthly payment or enjoying the 'lifetime' mortgage i like to see light at the tunnels end.
Due to family obligations, rising interest rates and the unforseen i would be happy to have the mortgage gone in 10 years. However my goal is to be debt free in under 8!
D
I focus on many unimportant things, but do so out of compulsivness. A few years ago i bought a bigger, newer, more expensive house. Except for the odd little item this is my only debt.
Here is an overview:
Bought in Aug 2008.
Original mortgage of $175,000 (4% variable amortized over 15 yrs) with payments at $825 * 24 . This was my PIT (principal, interest and tax).
Broken down it was in order $358, $292, $175. I was somewhat happy because i wanted to ensure out of every $1 paid, atleast $0.50 goes to pricipal.
Due to luck and interest rates plummeting i figure another $6k has gone to principal over the last 2 years which always helps.
My current payments 2 years after i started look like:
$955 * 24 which breaks down to $648, $117, $185 (2% variable with amortization of 8.4 yrs). Roughly $0.85 of every dollar goes to my principal right now!
While many focus on how to afford the monthly payment or enjoying the 'lifetime' mortgage i like to see light at the tunnels end.
Due to family obligations, rising interest rates and the unforseen i would be happy to have the mortgage gone in 10 years. However my goal is to be debt free in under 8!
D
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Net gains
This post has actually little to do with investing.
I entered a contest for an Ipad via 'wheredoesallmymoneygo' blog.
Then i got to thinking what have i won off the internet via contests (stocks usually) or just entering.
Here is a list of random items from the past 6 years with roughly the dates:
1. (2004) - $3500 laptop off CIBC stock picking contest (sold to friend for $2500)
2. (2007) - $50 gift card to amazon.com won off 'sinletter' stock contest
3. (2008) - Book from 'squawkfox' "entitled 397 ways to save money" by listing best money saving ideas in blog comments
4. (2009) - Book from 'sinletter' entitled "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb in a stock contest
5. (2009) - $150 gift card to amazon again from stock contest @ 'sinletter'
6. (2010) - *** would be nice to list the ipad here! ***
I can't think of anything else right now but will post if i remember anything else worth mentioning.
I am curious what does a 'good' (wheredoesallmymoneygo or squawkfox) blog generate for profit? I would be interested in knowing what some of the blogs i follow generate for incomes off advertising? Is a good blog really worth the work?
187 views
D
I entered a contest for an Ipad via 'wheredoesallmymoneygo' blog.
Then i got to thinking what have i won off the internet via contests (stocks usually) or just entering.
Here is a list of random items from the past 6 years with roughly the dates:
1. (2004) - $3500 laptop off CIBC stock picking contest (sold to friend for $2500)
2. (2007) - $50 gift card to amazon.com won off 'sinletter' stock contest
3. (2008) - Book from 'squawkfox' "entitled 397 ways to save money" by listing best money saving ideas in blog comments
4. (2009) - Book from 'sinletter' entitled "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb in a stock contest
5. (2009) - $150 gift card to amazon again from stock contest @ 'sinletter'
6. (2010) - *** would be nice to list the ipad here! ***
I can't think of anything else right now but will post if i remember anything else worth mentioning.
I am curious what does a 'good' (wheredoesallmymoneygo or squawkfox) blog generate for profit? I would be interested in knowing what some of the blogs i follow generate for incomes off advertising? Is a good blog really worth the work?
187 views
D
Opportunity cost
When cash is burning a hole what do you do?
Most would spend it or buy some cool toy like an Ipad!
I have that problem with my investment account right now. 60% cash.
As i fumble through a few annual reports, recently, mailed to me it becomes apparent that i need to put more money to work and decide if some of these companies are worth holding, adding or dumping.
Current annuals on my table include: Akita drilling, Algoma Central, North West Co., Berkshire Hathaway, and Collectors Universe (which sadly i sold too early).
I still continue to have some low ball bids in for an attempt to get some of my favourites or new additions at better prices.
I've struggles with my current mix as some holdings have had some changes within the past quarters or upon further research that have made me question why i own them. ORS is one such holding. It has huge risk in receivables owed and is now near 0 book value with taking into account if the receivables are not paid minus the part that is gauranteed.
My time has been limited with work and family to guide the portfolio, but i will try to get more of that cash working harder when the prices are right.
I just found a new blog which seems interesting.
http://blog.mdwoptions.com/
will have to read it and see what i think
D
Most would spend it or buy some cool toy like an Ipad!
I have that problem with my investment account right now. 60% cash.
As i fumble through a few annual reports, recently, mailed to me it becomes apparent that i need to put more money to work and decide if some of these companies are worth holding, adding or dumping.
Current annuals on my table include: Akita drilling, Algoma Central, North West Co., Berkshire Hathaway, and Collectors Universe (which sadly i sold too early).
I still continue to have some low ball bids in for an attempt to get some of my favourites or new additions at better prices.
I've struggles with my current mix as some holdings have had some changes within the past quarters or upon further research that have made me question why i own them. ORS is one such holding. It has huge risk in receivables owed and is now near 0 book value with taking into account if the receivables are not paid minus the part that is gauranteed.
My time has been limited with work and family to guide the portfolio, but i will try to get more of that cash working harder when the prices are right.
I just found a new blog which seems interesting.
http://blog.mdwoptions.com/
will have to read it and see what i think
D
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Anger management
Miffed might be a better word to describe my market mood these days. I have been stalking several securities and using my recently opened Spousal RRSP to buy with.
I have put in several (6 or so) limit orders to buy several of the previous mentioned securities. Only 3 have hit their target price and several more orders, which also haven't been reach, have been added.
My most recent, brk.b this morning, was set at $3340. It went to 3341 today then zoomed past $3400. Same goes for PNSN and CVI which didn't quite get that close before reversing course, but none the less left me frustrated.
I have usually put in orders for market or close to it. I have terrible luck getting limits to fill. Limits are a must in options, but i find that missing a few points on a stock versus missing it entirely is not usually worth it!
As i have been unable to give greater time and effort to search the markets, and the few companies i have found were not overly appealing, Brk.b seemed a good fit. Good mix of well run US companies, which hopefully a Ham Sandwich is capable of running someday, has greatly lagged DJIA and S&P 500 this past year.
I have often wondered what life after Buffet would look like for Brk.b? Perhaps stock piles of cash in the future could be used to pay a nice dividend? Several other of these types of companies, run by one main man, are also on my watchlist. CKI-T, GLRE, LUK, and FFH come to mind of possible substitue candidates to Brk.b.
As the market continues up i muse over a few ideas to sell puts on which i want to buy and hold, but would like it a bit cheaper. I liked Loblaws a little while back. Today TSO, CVI, CNR and perhaps HF have all tickled my fancy of late.
To be continued.
I have put in several (6 or so) limit orders to buy several of the previous mentioned securities. Only 3 have hit their target price and several more orders, which also haven't been reach, have been added.
My most recent, brk.b this morning, was set at $3340. It went to 3341 today then zoomed past $3400. Same goes for PNSN and CVI which didn't quite get that close before reversing course, but none the less left me frustrated.
I have usually put in orders for market or close to it. I have terrible luck getting limits to fill. Limits are a must in options, but i find that missing a few points on a stock versus missing it entirely is not usually worth it!
As i have been unable to give greater time and effort to search the markets, and the few companies i have found were not overly appealing, Brk.b seemed a good fit. Good mix of well run US companies, which hopefully a Ham Sandwich is capable of running someday, has greatly lagged DJIA and S&P 500 this past year.
I have often wondered what life after Buffet would look like for Brk.b? Perhaps stock piles of cash in the future could be used to pay a nice dividend? Several other of these types of companies, run by one main man, are also on my watchlist. CKI-T, GLRE, LUK, and FFH come to mind of possible substitue candidates to Brk.b.
As the market continues up i muse over a few ideas to sell puts on which i want to buy and hold, but would like it a bit cheaper. I liked Loblaws a little while back. Today TSO, CVI, CNR and perhaps HF have all tickled my fancy of late.
To be continued.
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