I like the title of those youtube videos.
It also aptly describes some of the biggest blunders in my trading portfolio.
I held BVF (now VRX) for years. Actually had a meaningful portfolio position (well above 10%). Then it did a triple and i sold. Then it went up another 10+ fold from my sell. Its recently fell 70% in the past few months, but even now its triple above where i sold..
Then we have STMP. A similar story i suppose. Held a meaningful position, as mentioned above, let it almost quadruple this time, then sold. Now it is sitting nearly 3 fold higher than my sell price.
I've mentioned to friends that if a portfolio was to be built with say 10% in each of your 10 best ideas and it was to be left alone for years (or a decade) it would likely fair better than me fooling with it.
Well i can't say for certain without a bit, ok lots, of research into my past holdings i will venture a guess that one or two of the above would more than make up for a few of my poorer past picks (ie. AG.un, YLO.t & CGS.t) and help this portfolio beat most out there.
Now i would argue that perhaps these companies above were sold at fair or even above fair market value, but since when does the market ever make stocks fairly valued always? I have had lots of learning lessons while investing, but perhaps failure to hold winners and sell losers has been my biggest. I see EVI.N, VCM.t, & RBA.t have all gone substantially higher since being sold in the past few years. Lesson learned? Only time will tell.
Sunday, November 8, 2015
I’ve been following the strategy lab articles from The Globe and Mail.
They started in Sept 2012 and cumulative returns have been 31%, 34%, 67% and 288% (he bought TSLA).
For reference;
The 67% cumulative is approx 19%/yr compounded
The 31% cumulative is about 10%/yr compounded
I then looked at my accounts…
My “trading account” was 19.4%/yr compounded (68% cumulative)
My passive account with mixed mutual funds and a few poor stocks (ie. CCJ) has been 16%yr/ compounded, which is way better than I figured. My Work RPP (yet another separate account has managed 12%/yr compounded (it’s a split of 4 into the indexes) and has been slightly tilted US equities until recently when I untilited.
Lastly I made a benchmark within my passive account above (mentioned in an earlier posting) and included it's return (but it so far has hurt the overall passive account return) was a 1/3 mix of simple low cost ETF strategy.
1/3 VTI, VCE, VAB and re balance when it's (10% or so out of balance). This one has only averaged a 10%/yr compounded or about 31% cumulative.
For yet another comparison's sake BRK.a on its own is about 16%/yr compounded (no div of course which mine above didn’t include cause I don’t reinvest) but that isn’t counting the USD exchange which all above is.
Anyways I found that little math lesson interesting…
They started in Sept 2012 and cumulative returns have been 31%, 34%, 67% and 288% (he bought TSLA).
For reference;
The 67% cumulative is approx 19%/yr compounded
The 31% cumulative is about 10%/yr compounded
I then looked at my accounts…
My “trading account” was 19.4%/yr compounded (68% cumulative)
My passive account with mixed mutual funds and a few poor stocks (ie. CCJ) has been 16%yr/ compounded, which is way better than I figured. My Work RPP (yet another separate account has managed 12%/yr compounded (it’s a split of 4 into the indexes) and has been slightly tilted US equities until recently when I untilited.
Lastly I made a benchmark within my passive account above (mentioned in an earlier posting) and included it's return (but it so far has hurt the overall passive account return) was a 1/3 mix of simple low cost ETF strategy.
1/3 VTI, VCE, VAB and re balance when it's (10% or so out of balance). This one has only averaged a 10%/yr compounded or about 31% cumulative.
For yet another comparison's sake BRK.a on its own is about 16%/yr compounded (no div of course which mine above didn’t include cause I don’t reinvest) but that isn’t counting the USD exchange which all above is.
Anyways I found that little math lesson interesting…
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Admitting ETF defeat.... sort of
While i don't believe in ETF's being the best tools for investors i have to admit that they are by and large a better option for most. As more investors switch to ETF investing it will hopefully make it easier for active managers to beat the markets.
I am going to outline a couch potato portfolio in this post for which i am to adhere to and compare to my actively managed account and my handful of hand picked mutual funds.
The mutual funds i mostly hold are non-index like (similar to TSX.HAV) and usually have a value tilted style. The fund managers are usually invested alongside clients and have only smaller funds so they have a greater investing universe to choose from.
I started with the plain vanilla 25% US equity 25% CDN equity and 50% bonds/cash. I then started to tweak the percentages a bit and then started to add small portions of DGS and XRB. This turned into a disaster as i got carried away and started to add to many ETF's and it looked actively managed.
I then gave myself a mandate, which i will keep here to remind me what ETF's are supposed to be, my written portfolio statement for the potato so to speak.
Because ETF's are about low costs i will hold no more than 4 index funds. Since most stock markets across the world fell together i will try to use all encompassing ETF's like VT.
I want the bonds portion to be weighted between 20-40% and equities 60-80% since my time horizon is longer than 20 years. The smaller percentage moves can be ignored thus removing excess trading and fees by rebalancing less.
Bonds: XBB (0.32%), XRB (0.35%) and VAB (0.20%)
Equites:
United States; VTI (0.07%), VBR (0.23%), VTV (0.12%)
Canadian; VCE (0.09%),XCS (0.55%)
Overseas; VT (0.25%), VSS(0.33%), DGS (0.63%), VEF (0.37%)VEE (0.49%)
Because i am seeking value and small cap stock selections via managed mutual funds i will stick to traditional low cost ETF's. Vanguard has the lowest fees by far so i will likely use them. I want to keep a healthy dose of Canadian as this is likely the currency i will retire with. The US fund is fine for worldwide exposure since many of the companies are global and likely benefit from worldwide growth anyways.
My couch portfolio will be:
VAB 30%
VTI 35%
VCE 35%
I wanted to keep fees low and the above have a blended average of 0.116% MER. VTI also has some small cap exposure.
I had to laugh a few months back when i did some rough calculations using some all star picks in a US magazine from a few years back. A blended ETF beat the pants of the equally weighted all star picks. Which started me on this current post. That and a lack of time to do a good job managing the active portfolio...
I am going to outline a couch potato portfolio in this post for which i am to adhere to and compare to my actively managed account and my handful of hand picked mutual funds.
The mutual funds i mostly hold are non-index like (similar to TSX.HAV) and usually have a value tilted style. The fund managers are usually invested alongside clients and have only smaller funds so they have a greater investing universe to choose from.
I started with the plain vanilla 25% US equity 25% CDN equity and 50% bonds/cash. I then started to tweak the percentages a bit and then started to add small portions of DGS and XRB. This turned into a disaster as i got carried away and started to add to many ETF's and it looked actively managed.
I then gave myself a mandate, which i will keep here to remind me what ETF's are supposed to be, my written portfolio statement for the potato so to speak.
Because ETF's are about low costs i will hold no more than 4 index funds. Since most stock markets across the world fell together i will try to use all encompassing ETF's like VT.
I want the bonds portion to be weighted between 20-40% and equities 60-80% since my time horizon is longer than 20 years. The smaller percentage moves can be ignored thus removing excess trading and fees by rebalancing less.
Bonds: XBB (0.32%), XRB (0.35%) and VAB (0.20%)
Equites:
United States; VTI (0.07%), VBR (0.23%), VTV (0.12%)
Canadian; VCE (0.09%),XCS (0.55%)
Overseas; VT (0.25%), VSS(0.33%), DGS (0.63%), VEF (0.37%)VEE (0.49%)
Because i am seeking value and small cap stock selections via managed mutual funds i will stick to traditional low cost ETF's. Vanguard has the lowest fees by far so i will likely use them. I want to keep a healthy dose of Canadian as this is likely the currency i will retire with. The US fund is fine for worldwide exposure since many of the companies are global and likely benefit from worldwide growth anyways.
My couch portfolio will be:
VAB 30%
VTI 35%
VCE 35%
I wanted to keep fees low and the above have a blended average of 0.116% MER. VTI also has some small cap exposure.
I had to laugh a few months back when i did some rough calculations using some all star picks in a US magazine from a few years back. A blended ETF beat the pants of the equally weighted all star picks. Which started me on this current post. That and a lack of time to do a good job managing the active portfolio...
Your CPI?
While reading today i watched a short youtube video on inflation.
Many of our inflation statistics seem to compare things we don't need or use and others we rely heavily on are thrown out. I vaguely recall a few years ago reading about someone who created their own inflation index using groceries and a few other items.
To personally do this i would need to look at my budget and break out where my must have expenditures are. I will leave out my Iphone, HD TV and other non necessary purchases, but instead focus on food and shelter and the monthly fees associated with the aforementioned items once purchased.
A semi-quick laundry list of things to cover would be:
1. Interest rates. Mortgages and other credit (my personal loan rates will be tracked here) as most of us (including me) have debts. Any and all debts will be here since these erode our purchasing power which could be directed to growing net worth.
2. Food. I will only cover here groceries as eating out is not a requirement, but something i do enjoy. Create a common basket of goods in food quality and quantity.
3. Gasoline. I am a commuter and rely heavily on my car and fuel to get me there. While i love the idea of an all electric (I am rooting for Tesla to make an affordable car soon) the battery life in my climate during winter (-20C averages not unheard of) months would likely make it unusable for my current trips (90km each way). The cold temperatures make the 100 mile estimates by the Nissan Leaf fall to half or below.
4. Insurance. While my life insurance policies are stable my house insurance has jumped considerably. Car insurance is certainly not going down.
5. Taxes. My property tax, income tax, EI, CPP all should be included as this have to be paid.
6. Hydro (electricity and natural gas).
7. Water. A requirement for all. Use city, bottled water and 18.9L bottle to compare.
8. Almost must have items. TV, internet, telephone and cell phones.
9. Minimum wage increase vs. my own salary increases.
10. Health. Dentists, optomatrists, and massage therapists are commonly used in our home.
11. Tim's coffee. Its a habit of mine, but one i often use to compare other items. "That's gonna cost me how many coffees?" or "I could save two Tim's coffees if i buy this!".
12. Clothing. This is really tough because you can't really compare apples and oranges from the same grocery store. Plus a lot of what we have is want not need clothing.
13. Bricks and mortar. Most of us live in homes or apartments which need repairs or paint every few years. Shingles, toilets, paint, light bulbs and water fixtures.
14. Alcohol. Case of Budweiser beer or 40 Oz of Crown Royal.
While some on the above list are easy to calculate (i track my fuel mileage and how much is spent and fuel prices are not hard to find on the web) others like food will take considerably more time. I hope to find some time to get these numbers tracked and maybe have some crude estimate as a start within 2012.
Yikes suddenly this looks like lots of work. Some of these will probably not get done, but the top 10 should be a pretty good start.
Many of our inflation statistics seem to compare things we don't need or use and others we rely heavily on are thrown out. I vaguely recall a few years ago reading about someone who created their own inflation index using groceries and a few other items.
To personally do this i would need to look at my budget and break out where my must have expenditures are. I will leave out my Iphone, HD TV and other non necessary purchases, but instead focus on food and shelter and the monthly fees associated with the aforementioned items once purchased.
A semi-quick laundry list of things to cover would be:
1. Interest rates. Mortgages and other credit (my personal loan rates will be tracked here) as most of us (including me) have debts. Any and all debts will be here since these erode our purchasing power which could be directed to growing net worth.
2. Food. I will only cover here groceries as eating out is not a requirement, but something i do enjoy. Create a common basket of goods in food quality and quantity.
3. Gasoline. I am a commuter and rely heavily on my car and fuel to get me there. While i love the idea of an all electric (I am rooting for Tesla to make an affordable car soon) the battery life in my climate during winter (-20C averages not unheard of) months would likely make it unusable for my current trips (90km each way). The cold temperatures make the 100 mile estimates by the Nissan Leaf fall to half or below.
4. Insurance. While my life insurance policies are stable my house insurance has jumped considerably. Car insurance is certainly not going down.
5. Taxes. My property tax, income tax, EI, CPP all should be included as this have to be paid.
6. Hydro (electricity and natural gas).
7. Water. A requirement for all. Use city, bottled water and 18.9L bottle to compare.
8. Almost must have items. TV, internet, telephone and cell phones.
9. Minimum wage increase vs. my own salary increases.
10. Health. Dentists, optomatrists, and massage therapists are commonly used in our home.
11. Tim's coffee. Its a habit of mine, but one i often use to compare other items. "That's gonna cost me how many coffees?" or "I could save two Tim's coffees if i buy this!".
12. Clothing. This is really tough because you can't really compare apples and oranges from the same grocery store. Plus a lot of what we have is want not need clothing.
13. Bricks and mortar. Most of us live in homes or apartments which need repairs or paint every few years. Shingles, toilets, paint, light bulbs and water fixtures.
14. Alcohol. Case of Budweiser beer or 40 Oz of Crown Royal.
While some on the above list are easy to calculate (i track my fuel mileage and how much is spent and fuel prices are not hard to find on the web) others like food will take considerably more time. I hope to find some time to get these numbers tracked and maybe have some crude estimate as a start within 2012.
Yikes suddenly this looks like lots of work. Some of these will probably not get done, but the top 10 should be a pretty good start.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
been a long time..
Updates..
Finally sold off some duds. PNSN, ORS, Ag.un, and a more poorly thought through YLO have all been discarded.
I have largely ignored options for over the past year due to a shift to an RRSP account focus and not really enough volatility to justify paltry premiums on covered calls.
I did look at RIM today and @ $26.50 or so writing a Sept call @ $28.00 for $2.19 ask looks mildly interesting.
Performance this year has been greater than ugly with stupid move compounded by more of the same. I am a slow learner and YLO taught me more of the same as Canwest. The business will survive, but common will be gone and debt holders will get 'something' in the end.
Since i am what appears to be masochistic i spent part of today reading about a Chinese paper company.. hopefully its no TRE!
Finally sold off some duds. PNSN, ORS, Ag.un, and a more poorly thought through YLO have all been discarded.
I have largely ignored options for over the past year due to a shift to an RRSP account focus and not really enough volatility to justify paltry premiums on covered calls.
I did look at RIM today and @ $26.50 or so writing a Sept call @ $28.00 for $2.19 ask looks mildly interesting.
Performance this year has been greater than ugly with stupid move compounded by more of the same. I am a slow learner and YLO taught me more of the same as Canwest. The business will survive, but common will be gone and debt holders will get 'something' in the end.
Since i am what appears to be masochistic i spent part of today reading about a Chinese paper company.. hopefully its no TRE!
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Hindsight via the rear view
As i read a Baupost 1999 shareholder letter some of my past mistakes come back to me and what went wrong. Also some of my biggest misses where for whatever i was thinking at the time my decision was not to buy.
I enjoy Seth, Warren and some others with their candid, witty and sometimes amusing banter, but it does serve a purpose. Much like this blog was started to remind me what i was thinking when i bought or sold some company or to just keep track of some silly option ideas.
I currently hold several positions which for whatever reason my buy idea was motivated more by upside than downside risk.
As Seth says in part of his letter " Many small-cap value managers have been facing investor redemptions, further fueling the selloff. " This reminds me of what happened to CLCT a few years back when it was below net cash value and after removing goodwill impairements, still profitable. To compound matters the shares where further depressed when a CEO had outside company issue's and needed to liquidate shares at multi year lows. Still beat myself up over using a thimble instead of the truck with this one.
My current holdings of Ag.un, ORS, & PNSN have been complete dogs. Combined they are sub 50% for me. Now i might be happy and use some spare change to scoop up more, but sadly this isn't the case.
My greed may have gotten in the way on these. Ag.un is my silly mistake of CGS all over perhaps. Too much debt and not enough wiggle room combined with poor short term market (cooler weather for ice). ORS is just one of those that may lose because it won't get paid.
PNSN is another that is being hit by a current reduced amount of trading, resulting in reduced commissions. It too has suffered from bad credits and with its leverage could be quickly undone. However i first bought hoping or rather to help if interest rates were to rise so would their income. No rise has come and this has helped further depress earnings.
All of these companies have no bottom. With CLCT, AKT.a, and a few others they have tangible assets which make me comfortable in averaging down. Buying some ag.un or CGS might sometimes be a good idea, but averaging down or betting the farm on them sure isn't.
To help with my PNSN i have debated buying calls. I like 3-6 months out calls but can't seem to find any too cheap. If the shares go sideways it may reduce some volatility to all prices to come down.
HNU and AOB calls might also be a good way for me to lose money in a big hurry. HNU has got to be one of the crasiest things to trade. Use derivates to improve leverage and you have a recipe that only the insane would think about using. IF gas prices went up or reversed it could work but lots of risk in this idea. Nov $4 calls @ bid of $0.70 or Mar $4 @ bid of $1.10 are my favourite idea to throw away money today.
I enjoy Seth, Warren and some others with their candid, witty and sometimes amusing banter, but it does serve a purpose. Much like this blog was started to remind me what i was thinking when i bought or sold some company or to just keep track of some silly option ideas.
I currently hold several positions which for whatever reason my buy idea was motivated more by upside than downside risk.
As Seth says in part of his letter " Many small-cap value managers have been facing investor redemptions, further fueling the selloff. " This reminds me of what happened to CLCT a few years back when it was below net cash value and after removing goodwill impairements, still profitable. To compound matters the shares where further depressed when a CEO had outside company issue's and needed to liquidate shares at multi year lows. Still beat myself up over using a thimble instead of the truck with this one.
My current holdings of Ag.un, ORS, & PNSN have been complete dogs. Combined they are sub 50% for me. Now i might be happy and use some spare change to scoop up more, but sadly this isn't the case.
My greed may have gotten in the way on these. Ag.un is my silly mistake of CGS all over perhaps. Too much debt and not enough wiggle room combined with poor short term market (cooler weather for ice). ORS is just one of those that may lose because it won't get paid.
PNSN is another that is being hit by a current reduced amount of trading, resulting in reduced commissions. It too has suffered from bad credits and with its leverage could be quickly undone. However i first bought hoping or rather to help if interest rates were to rise so would their income. No rise has come and this has helped further depress earnings.
All of these companies have no bottom. With CLCT, AKT.a, and a few others they have tangible assets which make me comfortable in averaging down. Buying some ag.un or CGS might sometimes be a good idea, but averaging down or betting the farm on them sure isn't.
To help with my PNSN i have debated buying calls. I like 3-6 months out calls but can't seem to find any too cheap. If the shares go sideways it may reduce some volatility to all prices to come down.
HNU and AOB calls might also be a good way for me to lose money in a big hurry. HNU has got to be one of the crasiest things to trade. Use derivates to improve leverage and you have a recipe that only the insane would think about using. IF gas prices went up or reversed it could work but lots of risk in this idea. Nov $4 calls @ bid of $0.70 or Mar $4 @ bid of $1.10 are my favourite idea to throw away money today.
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Actual investing comments
Scatter brained thoughts:
Debated buying calls on AOB and PNSN. Shares still falling and i haven't bought.... yet.
Since last post i have bought small amounts of DRX, PAP.a, VCM, CNJ, KSW-N, and added to PNSN and AKT.a. PNSN earnings going down and doesn't look good right now.
Should of sold ORS long time ago. I have that Canwest sinking feeling again.
Started a Canadian dividend watch list and today looked at Pizza trusts which might be added like PZA.un and BPF.un. Of course these are still trusts and not true dividend payers... yet.
Watched in amusment, interest and curiousity as COCO and other colleges get slammed due to some possible Federal loan changes. Same amusment was also used when watching SPB and
RBA has been added on to watchlist. Unsure of a good entry as of yet.
A quick check a few weeks back i had a 5% loss in my 'managed portfolio' vs indexes of S&P, TSX and DJIA all down about 1.5%. At time i was around 40% cash. Nothing really going right. Best gainer has been STMPs followed by NWF.un and ALC.
Biggest losers are ORS, AG.un and PNSN with the latter gaining steam in the wrong direction! All spec plays that should be treated as such and NOT given large amounts of portfolio %'s.
D
Debated buying calls on AOB and PNSN. Shares still falling and i haven't bought.... yet.
Since last post i have bought small amounts of DRX, PAP.a, VCM, CNJ, KSW-N, and added to PNSN and AKT.a. PNSN earnings going down and doesn't look good right now.
Should of sold ORS long time ago. I have that Canwest sinking feeling again.
Started a Canadian dividend watch list and today looked at Pizza trusts which might be added like PZA.un and BPF.un. Of course these are still trusts and not true dividend payers... yet.
Watched in amusment, interest and curiousity as COCO and other colleges get slammed due to some possible Federal loan changes. Same amusment was also used when watching SPB and
RBA has been added on to watchlist. Unsure of a good entry as of yet.
A quick check a few weeks back i had a 5% loss in my 'managed portfolio' vs indexes of S&P, TSX and DJIA all down about 1.5%. At time i was around 40% cash. Nothing really going right. Best gainer has been STMPs followed by NWF.un and ALC.
Biggest losers are ORS, AG.un and PNSN with the latter gaining steam in the wrong direction! All spec plays that should be treated as such and NOT given large amounts of portfolio %'s.
D
I Hate Debt
Well i do some silly things at times.
I focus on many unimportant things, but do so out of compulsivness. A few years ago i bought a bigger, newer, more expensive house. Except for the odd little item this is my only debt.
Here is an overview:
Bought in Aug 2008.
Original mortgage of $175,000 (4% variable amortized over 15 yrs) with payments at $825 * 24 . This was my PIT (principal, interest and tax).
Broken down it was in order $358, $292, $175. I was somewhat happy because i wanted to ensure out of every $1 paid, atleast $0.50 goes to pricipal.
Due to luck and interest rates plummeting i figure another $6k has gone to principal over the last 2 years which always helps.
My current payments 2 years after i started look like:
$955 * 24 which breaks down to $648, $117, $185 (2% variable with amortization of 8.4 yrs). Roughly $0.85 of every dollar goes to my principal right now!
While many focus on how to afford the monthly payment or enjoying the 'lifetime' mortgage i like to see light at the tunnels end.
Due to family obligations, rising interest rates and the unforseen i would be happy to have the mortgage gone in 10 years. However my goal is to be debt free in under 8!
D
I focus on many unimportant things, but do so out of compulsivness. A few years ago i bought a bigger, newer, more expensive house. Except for the odd little item this is my only debt.
Here is an overview:
Bought in Aug 2008.
Original mortgage of $175,000 (4% variable amortized over 15 yrs) with payments at $825 * 24 . This was my PIT (principal, interest and tax).
Broken down it was in order $358, $292, $175. I was somewhat happy because i wanted to ensure out of every $1 paid, atleast $0.50 goes to pricipal.
Due to luck and interest rates plummeting i figure another $6k has gone to principal over the last 2 years which always helps.
My current payments 2 years after i started look like:
$955 * 24 which breaks down to $648, $117, $185 (2% variable with amortization of 8.4 yrs). Roughly $0.85 of every dollar goes to my principal right now!
While many focus on how to afford the monthly payment or enjoying the 'lifetime' mortgage i like to see light at the tunnels end.
Due to family obligations, rising interest rates and the unforseen i would be happy to have the mortgage gone in 10 years. However my goal is to be debt free in under 8!
D
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Net gains
This post has actually little to do with investing.
I entered a contest for an Ipad via 'wheredoesallmymoneygo' blog.
Then i got to thinking what have i won off the internet via contests (stocks usually) or just entering.
Here is a list of random items from the past 6 years with roughly the dates:
1. (2004) - $3500 laptop off CIBC stock picking contest (sold to friend for $2500)
2. (2007) - $50 gift card to amazon.com won off 'sinletter' stock contest
3. (2008) - Book from 'squawkfox' "entitled 397 ways to save money" by listing best money saving ideas in blog comments
4. (2009) - Book from 'sinletter' entitled "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb in a stock contest
5. (2009) - $150 gift card to amazon again from stock contest @ 'sinletter'
6. (2010) - *** would be nice to list the ipad here! ***
I can't think of anything else right now but will post if i remember anything else worth mentioning.
I am curious what does a 'good' (wheredoesallmymoneygo or squawkfox) blog generate for profit? I would be interested in knowing what some of the blogs i follow generate for incomes off advertising? Is a good blog really worth the work?
187 views
D
I entered a contest for an Ipad via 'wheredoesallmymoneygo' blog.
Then i got to thinking what have i won off the internet via contests (stocks usually) or just entering.
Here is a list of random items from the past 6 years with roughly the dates:
1. (2004) - $3500 laptop off CIBC stock picking contest (sold to friend for $2500)
2. (2007) - $50 gift card to amazon.com won off 'sinletter' stock contest
3. (2008) - Book from 'squawkfox' "entitled 397 ways to save money" by listing best money saving ideas in blog comments
4. (2009) - Book from 'sinletter' entitled "Fooled by randomness" by Nassim Taleb in a stock contest
5. (2009) - $150 gift card to amazon again from stock contest @ 'sinletter'
6. (2010) - *** would be nice to list the ipad here! ***
I can't think of anything else right now but will post if i remember anything else worth mentioning.
I am curious what does a 'good' (wheredoesallmymoneygo or squawkfox) blog generate for profit? I would be interested in knowing what some of the blogs i follow generate for incomes off advertising? Is a good blog really worth the work?
187 views
D
Opportunity cost
When cash is burning a hole what do you do?
Most would spend it or buy some cool toy like an Ipad!
I have that problem with my investment account right now. 60% cash.
As i fumble through a few annual reports, recently, mailed to me it becomes apparent that i need to put more money to work and decide if some of these companies are worth holding, adding or dumping.
Current annuals on my table include: Akita drilling, Algoma Central, North West Co., Berkshire Hathaway, and Collectors Universe (which sadly i sold too early).
I still continue to have some low ball bids in for an attempt to get some of my favourites or new additions at better prices.
I've struggles with my current mix as some holdings have had some changes within the past quarters or upon further research that have made me question why i own them. ORS is one such holding. It has huge risk in receivables owed and is now near 0 book value with taking into account if the receivables are not paid minus the part that is gauranteed.
My time has been limited with work and family to guide the portfolio, but i will try to get more of that cash working harder when the prices are right.
I just found a new blog which seems interesting.
http://blog.mdwoptions.com/
will have to read it and see what i think
D
Most would spend it or buy some cool toy like an Ipad!
I have that problem with my investment account right now. 60% cash.
As i fumble through a few annual reports, recently, mailed to me it becomes apparent that i need to put more money to work and decide if some of these companies are worth holding, adding or dumping.
Current annuals on my table include: Akita drilling, Algoma Central, North West Co., Berkshire Hathaway, and Collectors Universe (which sadly i sold too early).
I still continue to have some low ball bids in for an attempt to get some of my favourites or new additions at better prices.
I've struggles with my current mix as some holdings have had some changes within the past quarters or upon further research that have made me question why i own them. ORS is one such holding. It has huge risk in receivables owed and is now near 0 book value with taking into account if the receivables are not paid minus the part that is gauranteed.
My time has been limited with work and family to guide the portfolio, but i will try to get more of that cash working harder when the prices are right.
I just found a new blog which seems interesting.
http://blog.mdwoptions.com/
will have to read it and see what i think
D
Wednesday, January 20, 2010
Anger management
Miffed might be a better word to describe my market mood these days. I have been stalking several securities and using my recently opened Spousal RRSP to buy with.
I have put in several (6 or so) limit orders to buy several of the previous mentioned securities. Only 3 have hit their target price and several more orders, which also haven't been reach, have been added.
My most recent, brk.b this morning, was set at $3340. It went to 3341 today then zoomed past $3400. Same goes for PNSN and CVI which didn't quite get that close before reversing course, but none the less left me frustrated.
I have usually put in orders for market or close to it. I have terrible luck getting limits to fill. Limits are a must in options, but i find that missing a few points on a stock versus missing it entirely is not usually worth it!
As i have been unable to give greater time and effort to search the markets, and the few companies i have found were not overly appealing, Brk.b seemed a good fit. Good mix of well run US companies, which hopefully a Ham Sandwich is capable of running someday, has greatly lagged DJIA and S&P 500 this past year.
I have often wondered what life after Buffet would look like for Brk.b? Perhaps stock piles of cash in the future could be used to pay a nice dividend? Several other of these types of companies, run by one main man, are also on my watchlist. CKI-T, GLRE, LUK, and FFH come to mind of possible substitue candidates to Brk.b.
As the market continues up i muse over a few ideas to sell puts on which i want to buy and hold, but would like it a bit cheaper. I liked Loblaws a little while back. Today TSO, CVI, CNR and perhaps HF have all tickled my fancy of late.
To be continued.
I have put in several (6 or so) limit orders to buy several of the previous mentioned securities. Only 3 have hit their target price and several more orders, which also haven't been reach, have been added.
My most recent, brk.b this morning, was set at $3340. It went to 3341 today then zoomed past $3400. Same goes for PNSN and CVI which didn't quite get that close before reversing course, but none the less left me frustrated.
I have usually put in orders for market or close to it. I have terrible luck getting limits to fill. Limits are a must in options, but i find that missing a few points on a stock versus missing it entirely is not usually worth it!
As i have been unable to give greater time and effort to search the markets, and the few companies i have found were not overly appealing, Brk.b seemed a good fit. Good mix of well run US companies, which hopefully a Ham Sandwich is capable of running someday, has greatly lagged DJIA and S&P 500 this past year.
I have often wondered what life after Buffet would look like for Brk.b? Perhaps stock piles of cash in the future could be used to pay a nice dividend? Several other of these types of companies, run by one main man, are also on my watchlist. CKI-T, GLRE, LUK, and FFH come to mind of possible substitue candidates to Brk.b.
As the market continues up i muse over a few ideas to sell puts on which i want to buy and hold, but would like it a bit cheaper. I liked Loblaws a little while back. Today TSO, CVI, CNR and perhaps HF have all tickled my fancy of late.
To be continued.
Friday, December 18, 2009
portfolio changes
Sold out of BVF 100% earlier this week.
Bought more ORS and ALDA in last few months.
Updating and changing watchlist to include: MTE, TDW, ALC, CNJ, CVI, EVI, LOJN, AG.un, and others.
Moving money into newly created TFSA and Spousal RRSP accounts at Questrade. To be completed by next week. Some of the above and a few others might be added to the new accounts rather soon, but i will keep a good amount in cash to wait for dips or better prices on these and others.
Currently reading: Nassim Taleb's updated 'fooled by randomness', and Niall Ferguson's 'the ascent of money'. On Xmas wishlist (Outliers, Superfreakonomics and Security analysis).
Bought more ORS and ALDA in last few months.
Updating and changing watchlist to include: MTE, TDW, ALC, CNJ, CVI, EVI, LOJN, AG.un, and others.
Moving money into newly created TFSA and Spousal RRSP accounts at Questrade. To be completed by next week. Some of the above and a few others might be added to the new accounts rather soon, but i will keep a good amount in cash to wait for dips or better prices on these and others.
Currently reading: Nassim Taleb's updated 'fooled by randomness', and Niall Ferguson's 'the ascent of money'. On Xmas wishlist (Outliers, Superfreakonomics and Security analysis).
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Tax advantages and portfolio chanes
Before updates:
If your really bored or nerdy like me you can check out
http://www.walterharder.ca/T1.html
then enter in $60000 income into the Canadian dividends from public corps and viola total tax owing is $91.06
I think i found this loop hole originally at
http://taxtips.ca/
I would like to confirm this with an accountant first, but it looks legit. The biggest problem is just coming up with the $500,000 - $1,000,000 and then finding the 'good' company with 4-8% dividend yield... (ie. BCE, perhaps DHF.un, YLO.un when they convert, most big Canadian banks, TRP, ENB, TRI, ACO.b, ABO.a*(one of my favourites in the group), CP, IIC, GWO, MFC, FTS, L, akt.a, CNR, RCI.b, etc.
Of course many of these companies no longer sport 5-10% yields, but closer to 2-4% range. Some are close to 100% payout too, which isn't a good sign. Many trusts will be converting and some good companies could be handing out large yields in the next few years, with the ability to actually cover them with earnings.
Lastly a deep in the money put would likely be a reasonably priced way to protect (like insurance) your capital in case of major market drops like the last few years!
Portfolio changes:
sold out 80% of BVF in steps.
Bought small amounts (roughly 5% of trading capital) of:
GVC.T
ALDA (US)
CKK.V
ORS (US)
New strategy on new buys: buy smaller amount and if it falls (atleast 20%) and company situation has materially changed average down.
still holding:
BVF
CLCT (US)
CGS (worthless but good reminder not to buy goodwill fluff without any earnings to back it up and huge debt just to add insult to injury. Good lesson)
Cash level in account close to 50%.
Continuing to updating and analyze companies on watchlists. Currently using TMX.com (sends emails on volume and target prices), Stockscores.com (highlights companies on lists when @ or below target price), and google to track idea's. Sedar and Edgar for company info and insight.
Also chaning checklist and polishing it for ease of use to evaluate companies quicker and allow for better comparison between idea's. Currently looking at buying CNJ (missed the boat), AG.un (also missed this boat), ARTW, NWF.un, OME, STMP, VOXX & ALC to name a few.
Contemplating selling puts on L, BVF, and a few others instead of buying and to collect small amounts (hopefully) if companies hold or go up. Nice way to get into a position a little cheaper if your going to buy anyways, but cheaper cost comes with potential opportunity cost if stock moves higher quickly in time frame.
Found new website this week which seems very helpful for debt insight.
http://doubleblind.ca/
Golden opportunites are shrinking.
If your really bored or nerdy like me you can check out
http://www.walterharder.ca/T1.html
then enter in $60000 income into the Canadian dividends from public corps and viola total tax owing is $91.06
I think i found this loop hole originally at
http://taxtips.ca/
I would like to confirm this with an accountant first, but it looks legit. The biggest problem is just coming up with the $500,000 - $1,000,000 and then finding the 'good' company with 4-8% dividend yield... (ie. BCE, perhaps DHF.un, YLO.un when they convert, most big Canadian banks, TRP, ENB, TRI, ACO.b, ABO.a*(one of my favourites in the group), CP, IIC, GWO, MFC, FTS, L, akt.a, CNR, RCI.b, etc.
Of course many of these companies no longer sport 5-10% yields, but closer to 2-4% range. Some are close to 100% payout too, which isn't a good sign. Many trusts will be converting and some good companies could be handing out large yields in the next few years, with the ability to actually cover them with earnings.
Lastly a deep in the money put would likely be a reasonably priced way to protect (like insurance) your capital in case of major market drops like the last few years!
Portfolio changes:
sold out 80% of BVF in steps.
Bought small amounts (roughly 5% of trading capital) of:
GVC.T
ALDA (US)
CKK.V
ORS (US)
New strategy on new buys: buy smaller amount and if it falls (atleast 20%) and company situation has materially changed average down.
still holding:
BVF
CLCT (US)
CGS (worthless but good reminder not to buy goodwill fluff without any earnings to back it up and huge debt just to add insult to injury. Good lesson)
Cash level in account close to 50%.
Continuing to updating and analyze companies on watchlists. Currently using TMX.com (sends emails on volume and target prices), Stockscores.com (highlights companies on lists when @ or below target price), and google to track idea's. Sedar and Edgar for company info and insight.
Also chaning checklist and polishing it for ease of use to evaluate companies quicker and allow for better comparison between idea's. Currently looking at buying CNJ (missed the boat), AG.un (also missed this boat), ARTW, NWF.un, OME, STMP, VOXX & ALC to name a few.
Contemplating selling puts on L, BVF, and a few others instead of buying and to collect small amounts (hopefully) if companies hold or go up. Nice way to get into a position a little cheaper if your going to buy anyways, but cheaper cost comes with potential opportunity cost if stock moves higher quickly in time frame.
Found new website this week which seems very helpful for debt insight.
http://doubleblind.ca/
Golden opportunites are shrinking.
Friday, July 3, 2009
Long time hold?
Well new entry time.
Biovail has gone up slowly. It keeps hitting new highs which is a good sign. They have used up most of their cash, started to issue debt to grow and the market seems to like it. I am not convinced and haven't quite decided when to sell yet. I have impeccible timing on selling just before a rally and no doubt this time will be no different.
I have added a few new companies to my watch list and tried to weed out everything from my list. To do this i have created a reject list and have put dates when the were put there a brief reason why (ie to expensive or no earnings) and a possible price when i should revisit it.
Some new companies added are: KSU-N, ORA-T, PTEN-Q, BBEP-Q,
I have also started to consider: YLO.UN-T, AKT.A-T, PAP.A-T, SNY-N
as a few other places to park money after (yes someday i will) selling BVF.
In general the companies that i found extremely cheap 6 months ago now appear fairly valued (well to me anyways). Such as EGD-V, QUA-T, and BCB-T. Many others haven't faired so well, but in general the market seems fair with current earnings (to me).
I follow many blogs thanks to the wonderful google reader. One of my favourites, Squakfox, just gave me her new book for responding to her question 'what is your best money saving advice tip'. Mine was to just use low cost funds or ETF's, and take every opportunity to take the governments money such as RRSP's, RESP's and TFSA's.
One side note: i was reading Moneysense magazine earlier (I like many still enjoy reading print over computer screens) and it really hit me how thin it had gotten. I sorta liked not having the adds taking up most of the magaizine. Kind of intrigued i grabbed an older copy (i have kept most of them since 2004) and compared how many adds.
Not only were the November '04 adds mostly 1 or 2 pagers, but they were close to tripple that of my recent Moneysense May '09 copy. 12 adds today compared to 33 in '04. Wow that has to hurt the margins. Many of my favourite writers are gone too which is a double whammy. Thankfully i can check most of these writers out online.
Back to actual investing i still have a soft spot for drillers. Besides Akita, KEG-N and PTEN-Q both look interesting.
Others on my watchlist include: ALDA-Q, VCM-T, MT-T, MRD-T, ABO.a-T, ARTW-Q, & a few others.
I will post again hopefully with new buys.
DH
Biovail has gone up slowly. It keeps hitting new highs which is a good sign. They have used up most of their cash, started to issue debt to grow and the market seems to like it. I am not convinced and haven't quite decided when to sell yet. I have impeccible timing on selling just before a rally and no doubt this time will be no different.
I have added a few new companies to my watch list and tried to weed out everything from my list. To do this i have created a reject list and have put dates when the were put there a brief reason why (ie to expensive or no earnings) and a possible price when i should revisit it.
Some new companies added are: KSU-N, ORA-T, PTEN-Q, BBEP-Q,
I have also started to consider: YLO.UN-T, AKT.A-T, PAP.A-T, SNY-N
as a few other places to park money after (yes someday i will) selling BVF.
In general the companies that i found extremely cheap 6 months ago now appear fairly valued (well to me anyways). Such as EGD-V, QUA-T, and BCB-T. Many others haven't faired so well, but in general the market seems fair with current earnings (to me).
I follow many blogs thanks to the wonderful google reader. One of my favourites, Squakfox, just gave me her new book for responding to her question 'what is your best money saving advice tip'. Mine was to just use low cost funds or ETF's, and take every opportunity to take the governments money such as RRSP's, RESP's and TFSA's.
One side note: i was reading Moneysense magazine earlier (I like many still enjoy reading print over computer screens) and it really hit me how thin it had gotten. I sorta liked not having the adds taking up most of the magaizine. Kind of intrigued i grabbed an older copy (i have kept most of them since 2004) and compared how many adds.
Not only were the November '04 adds mostly 1 or 2 pagers, but they were close to tripple that of my recent Moneysense May '09 copy. 12 adds today compared to 33 in '04. Wow that has to hurt the margins. Many of my favourite writers are gone too which is a double whammy. Thankfully i can check most of these writers out online.
Back to actual investing i still have a soft spot for drillers. Besides Akita, KEG-N and PTEN-Q both look interesting.
Others on my watchlist include: ALDA-Q, VCM-T, MT-T, MRD-T, ABO.a-T, ARTW-Q, & a few others.
I will post again hopefully with new buys.
DH
Sunday, May 3, 2009
updates
Well lots has happened since my last post.
None of it really belongs on this blog so i will look at the market. Many of my ideas to invest in have gone gangbusters. I still have some that are interesting, but the list has shrunk.
Banks are somehow instantly viable again as the share prices of several have nearly tripled, see Wells Fargo.
Biovail continues to be held and earnings due out May 6th. CLCT should be soon. It will be interesting now that they have removed the Jewellery business how much if any the earnings will be?
My current watchlist has companies like Sherrit, Sierra wireless, ADF group, H. Paulin and many others. While most have gone up 50-100% very quickly others remain low like H. Paulin.
I like to look at my 'CRAP' (can't realise a profit)list to see if companies can come back from the dead. Cott corp, Abitibi, QLT, USS shipping, Canwest global and Liquidation World have all made this list. While about half are down greatly or gone bankrupt the others like Cott have made nice gains, which could offset the large losses. Brick brewing a recent addition had signs of life on Friday.
I had all but forgotten about Urainium stocks except for Cameco, Denison and Uranium one. Mega Uranium however would have been the one to watch. The others have done ok too, but they appear to be a hot sector again. That said what isn't right now... Pharmacueticals!
While this site was intended for options ideas my strategy and focus has shifted greatly. That isn't to say i dislike options, but the VIX made them too expensive for how i intended to use them. I will add ideas on occasion in the future.
Google reader is great for catching up on reading blogs. It also tracks what i do or do not read. Blogs like Simoloen sense are jam packed and have many neat articles, but i have neither time nor inclination to read it all. I prefer blogs that post a few times per week with well laid out ideas or thoughts. << If only i could achieve this?
One last small company to look at is Omega Protein. Has some pretty good looking stats.
DH
None of it really belongs on this blog so i will look at the market. Many of my ideas to invest in have gone gangbusters. I still have some that are interesting, but the list has shrunk.
Banks are somehow instantly viable again as the share prices of several have nearly tripled, see Wells Fargo.
Biovail continues to be held and earnings due out May 6th. CLCT should be soon. It will be interesting now that they have removed the Jewellery business how much if any the earnings will be?
My current watchlist has companies like Sherrit, Sierra wireless, ADF group, H. Paulin and many others. While most have gone up 50-100% very quickly others remain low like H. Paulin.
I like to look at my 'CRAP' (can't realise a profit)list to see if companies can come back from the dead. Cott corp, Abitibi, QLT, USS shipping, Canwest global and Liquidation World have all made this list. While about half are down greatly or gone bankrupt the others like Cott have made nice gains, which could offset the large losses. Brick brewing a recent addition had signs of life on Friday.
I had all but forgotten about Urainium stocks except for Cameco, Denison and Uranium one. Mega Uranium however would have been the one to watch. The others have done ok too, but they appear to be a hot sector again. That said what isn't right now... Pharmacueticals!
While this site was intended for options ideas my strategy and focus has shifted greatly. That isn't to say i dislike options, but the VIX made them too expensive for how i intended to use them. I will add ideas on occasion in the future.
Google reader is great for catching up on reading blogs. It also tracks what i do or do not read. Blogs like Simoloen sense are jam packed and have many neat articles, but i have neither time nor inclination to read it all. I prefer blogs that post a few times per week with well laid out ideas or thoughts. << If only i could achieve this?
One last small company to look at is Omega Protein. Has some pretty good looking stats.
DH
Friday, February 6, 2009
coulda shoulda woulda
As i read about self made millionaires and many other articles i fancy my thoughts trailed off to what i coulda shoulda woulda done differently if i knew then what i know now.
I may have a job loss, like many others, so what would have helped my 'freedom'
1. not buying 2 new cars (I'm a slow learner)
2. not pulling atleast some investments into cash July '07)
3. buy house at markets peak
only time will tell how all works out.
D
I may have a job loss, like many others, so what would have helped my 'freedom'
1. not buying 2 new cars (I'm a slow learner)
2. not pulling atleast some investments into cash July '07)
3. buy house at markets peak
only time will tell how all works out.
D
Friday, January 23, 2009
TFSA accounts
Everyone seems to cheer these latest inventions of the government. I am a little less enthusiastic. I don't see the point? I have $5000 that i put into a savings account getting me what 3%? So the tax savings for me is .54 of $150 or about $90/yr. Not exactly life changing for even low income earners who can't find $500 to save much less $5000.
I am thinking of the alternative and going for broke. The flip side to this is that my losses are no longer claimable. I still think the advantages far out way the non deductability. So my TFSA will be put into options, small caps and anything else that looks like it might double or beyond. Of course the opposite may be true, but unless that account really grows its better for me to put money into RRSP's. I can take the refund and pay down non deductible debt.
One bright idea i am looking at is Suntech or STP-N. Numbers look good, but will sales dip drastically during this downturn?
D
I am thinking of the alternative and going for broke. The flip side to this is that my losses are no longer claimable. I still think the advantages far out way the non deductability. So my TFSA will be put into options, small caps and anything else that looks like it might double or beyond. Of course the opposite may be true, but unless that account really grows its better for me to put money into RRSP's. I can take the refund and pay down non deductible debt.
One bright idea i am looking at is Suntech or STP-N. Numbers look good, but will sales dip drastically during this downturn?
D
shorting
Hmm,
where do i begin. First Tesoro. Whoops. I tried to buy the actual shares when it hit just under $7. Yes tried as i forgot my trading password. Hmmm maybe that whole trading less strategy wasn't such a good idea after all? Well needless to say i have watched TSO and Energold among others go up steadily since i 'couldn't sign in'.
Now armed with my password and some more picks things are looking good. BVF has steadily marched up. I am deciding when to trim some holdings and will wait till after the Feb quarterly report. CLCT is also showings signs of life. Sadly Canwest should be taken out back and shot. I have decided the pittance $200 i have left in it will just stay there for now.
I was reading some silly replies on google finance comments. Some people are so childish. However it got me thinking. In this silly market why not try shorting your favourite failing financial institution and then buying calls in case it decides to stop writing off billions? Have yet to calculate this, but i suspect that the VIX will mean the calls are too rich and the spread to great for this idea.
With all banks doing so badly how soon before we have only government banks? The money being thrown at these companies makes me think of the 'no child left behind' Bush passed. This one could be reworded 'No shitty bank or borrower left behind'.
Many headlines are talking of massive deflation right now which is hard to argue with. Some reputable sources are pointing to inflation not to far off since we are flooding the system with money everywhere. My question is why? If all the banks fail out with that money and the assets are worth little then none of this money will get into the economy for a long time.
The Japan scenario seems to be closest for the US. It can't take more debt to fix the problem, but rather deflation. How much is any ones guess, but it must happen or the next bubble will just be bigger.
Enough ranting. SWIR looks to be trading cheaply. I see they bought another company. More work will need to be done on Sedar/Edgar before i throw good money after bad (i am all pro at this).
I am in the middle of 3 books right now. Literally i have reached the midway point on Common stocks uncommon profits, Snowball, and Unconventional Success. I also received The Contrarians 13 and its sitting on my dresser under the pile. My wife says i need to get a life.
I however quite like my life, but more balance might be a good thing. My 3 year old and I have been skating a few times. I hope he's like me so we can talk cause my wife sure doesn't.
If i was a betting man i might guess that picking railways, such as BNI, isn't such a bad way to go. Also a friend told me Sangold, if it delivers on promises, will be rolling in the money if gold prices stay up. If it hits 200,000 oz year production at a cash cost of $400 us it will indeed be flushed with dough. Time will tell.
On a good note my mortgage, which is my only outstanding debt, is now 2.25%. I suspect i will be below 2% before 2010. I just keep bumping up the payments slightly every time rates fall so that my remaining balance will be smaller when rates start rising (and they will eventually).
Did i mention i love google reader? Its fantastic. All my favourite blogs (the list is growing almost weekly) are now separate from my email. I can quickly scan headlines and find all my favourites in one neat area.
I will finish by saying my lists are growing daily. I need to pare down the lesser names so i can 'see' movements in my companies of choice. I continue to litter my lists with the RBS and Oilexco's more out of interest sake than investment. I continue to look for the Akita's that are making money, no debt and should make money in the future. Very few including Akita, as the drilling sector will suffer, meet the requirements.
One new idea is STP. I guess with oil under $40 time will tell if the environment importance fades like the commodities prices?
D
where do i begin. First Tesoro. Whoops. I tried to buy the actual shares when it hit just under $7. Yes tried as i forgot my trading password. Hmmm maybe that whole trading less strategy wasn't such a good idea after all? Well needless to say i have watched TSO and Energold among others go up steadily since i 'couldn't sign in'.
Now armed with my password and some more picks things are looking good. BVF has steadily marched up. I am deciding when to trim some holdings and will wait till after the Feb quarterly report. CLCT is also showings signs of life. Sadly Canwest should be taken out back and shot. I have decided the pittance $200 i have left in it will just stay there for now.
I was reading some silly replies on google finance comments. Some people are so childish. However it got me thinking. In this silly market why not try shorting your favourite failing financial institution and then buying calls in case it decides to stop writing off billions? Have yet to calculate this, but i suspect that the VIX will mean the calls are too rich and the spread to great for this idea.
With all banks doing so badly how soon before we have only government banks? The money being thrown at these companies makes me think of the 'no child left behind' Bush passed. This one could be reworded 'No shitty bank or borrower left behind'.
Many headlines are talking of massive deflation right now which is hard to argue with. Some reputable sources are pointing to inflation not to far off since we are flooding the system with money everywhere. My question is why? If all the banks fail out with that money and the assets are worth little then none of this money will get into the economy for a long time.
The Japan scenario seems to be closest for the US. It can't take more debt to fix the problem, but rather deflation. How much is any ones guess, but it must happen or the next bubble will just be bigger.
Enough ranting. SWIR looks to be trading cheaply. I see they bought another company. More work will need to be done on Sedar/Edgar before i throw good money after bad (i am all pro at this).
I am in the middle of 3 books right now. Literally i have reached the midway point on Common stocks uncommon profits, Snowball, and Unconventional Success. I also received The Contrarians 13 and its sitting on my dresser under the pile. My wife says i need to get a life.
I however quite like my life, but more balance might be a good thing. My 3 year old and I have been skating a few times. I hope he's like me so we can talk cause my wife sure doesn't.
If i was a betting man i might guess that picking railways, such as BNI, isn't such a bad way to go. Also a friend told me Sangold, if it delivers on promises, will be rolling in the money if gold prices stay up. If it hits 200,000 oz year production at a cash cost of $400 us it will indeed be flushed with dough. Time will tell.
On a good note my mortgage, which is my only outstanding debt, is now 2.25%. I suspect i will be below 2% before 2010. I just keep bumping up the payments slightly every time rates fall so that my remaining balance will be smaller when rates start rising (and they will eventually).
Did i mention i love google reader? Its fantastic. All my favourite blogs (the list is growing almost weekly) are now separate from my email. I can quickly scan headlines and find all my favourites in one neat area.
I will finish by saying my lists are growing daily. I need to pare down the lesser names so i can 'see' movements in my companies of choice. I continue to litter my lists with the RBS and Oilexco's more out of interest sake than investment. I continue to look for the Akita's that are making money, no debt and should make money in the future. Very few including Akita, as the drilling sector will suffer, meet the requirements.
One new idea is STP. I guess with oil under $40 time will tell if the environment importance fades like the commodities prices?
D
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Refining my options
Time for idea stealing time again.
I have watched the refiners, shippers and banks fall off a cliff the past few months... just to name a few sectors.
I have also contemplated buying a few times. Then one of my frequented blogs comes up with one of the companies i have done some quick research on Tesoro. Now i have looked at the numbers, compared it to Valero, Sunoco and a few others and know that when oil falls refining margins 'should' get better.
This blog post highlighted some things that i didn't know about Tesoro and its growth prospects. Now if oil prices continue down or remain stable, this i don't know, Tesoro should be a good hold for a few years.
I figured that now would be a good time to look at my 'options' and see what i can do besides just buying shares at todays price.
My first thought was to sell puts. Selling a Jan put with $12.50 strike yields 10% minimum (on initial purchase price) in 2 months with the price staying above $9.7. If it goes to $12.50 i just got $3.7/share for free or 38% of todays $9.7.
A Jan call for $5 strike is $5.2. So anything above $10.2 is all profit and anything below i will have a small or large loss. I get 2-1 leverage with this idea, but it doesn't merit the risk to me since i doubt Tesoro will fall another 50% from here.
I like the Jan '10 calls a little better. $5 strike is going for $6.2, but offers another 12 months of time. Slightly less than 2-1 ratio. If i wanted to buy 200 shares it would cost almost $2000. By using this call option i can control 300 shares for less than $2000. The 4% dividend is not enough incentive for me to buy the 200 vs controlling 300.
For the additional 12 months my time cost is $0.085/month. If Tesoro reachs only $12 by Jan 2010 my return on 200 shares is 28%. Not bad but what happens if i controlled 300 shares.
I lost the $0.40 dividend (which was taxed as income in Canada anyways), but my return was only 12.9%. Hmmm how about $14? 48% for owned vs 61% for controlled. As you can see the breakeven for this trade is around $13.5.
I think Tesoro has a good shot of being $20 or better. The margin gets better as the price goes up. At $20 the return is 110% owned vs. 142% controlled.
read Randolph's blog, from my favourites, as to why you should like Tesoro at these prices.
D
I have watched the refiners, shippers and banks fall off a cliff the past few months... just to name a few sectors.
I have also contemplated buying a few times. Then one of my frequented blogs comes up with one of the companies i have done some quick research on Tesoro. Now i have looked at the numbers, compared it to Valero, Sunoco and a few others and know that when oil falls refining margins 'should' get better.
This blog post highlighted some things that i didn't know about Tesoro and its growth prospects. Now if oil prices continue down or remain stable, this i don't know, Tesoro should be a good hold for a few years.
I figured that now would be a good time to look at my 'options' and see what i can do besides just buying shares at todays price.
My first thought was to sell puts. Selling a Jan put with $12.50 strike yields 10% minimum (on initial purchase price) in 2 months with the price staying above $9.7. If it goes to $12.50 i just got $3.7/share for free or 38% of todays $9.7.
A Jan call for $5 strike is $5.2. So anything above $10.2 is all profit and anything below i will have a small or large loss. I get 2-1 leverage with this idea, but it doesn't merit the risk to me since i doubt Tesoro will fall another 50% from here.
I like the Jan '10 calls a little better. $5 strike is going for $6.2, but offers another 12 months of time. Slightly less than 2-1 ratio. If i wanted to buy 200 shares it would cost almost $2000. By using this call option i can control 300 shares for less than $2000. The 4% dividend is not enough incentive for me to buy the 200 vs controlling 300.
For the additional 12 months my time cost is $0.085/month. If Tesoro reachs only $12 by Jan 2010 my return on 200 shares is 28%. Not bad but what happens if i controlled 300 shares.
I lost the $0.40 dividend (which was taxed as income in Canada anyways), but my return was only 12.9%. Hmmm how about $14? 48% for owned vs 61% for controlled. As you can see the breakeven for this trade is around $13.5.
I think Tesoro has a good shot of being $20 or better. The margin gets better as the price goes up. At $20 the return is 110% owned vs. 142% controlled.
read Randolph's blog, from my favourites, as to why you should like Tesoro at these prices.
D
Monday, November 3, 2008
put it to the man!
Here is a free tip from Warren Buffet.
Go to Sedar and read what he does. That's it.
Oh and for a laugh read his annual letters @ Berkshire's website. Note the frills and gimmicks that this site offers!
What i am referring to is Warrens most recent action. He has been selling puts and lots of them. Now why would anyone 'sell' puts in a bear market you ask? Easy.
He as always is confident in his assessment in a company and bets just so. Instead of just paying market prices for Burlington Northern he just sells puts. Now he is getting these shares for less than current price.... or he just made some quick money with no money.
Now i don't have much money left to play with. I am in the same situation that Collectors Universe and Connacher Ceo's were recently. Well not exactly but i may as well be. Prices are so low and continue to fall. My wife is scared out of her wits and so i agree to remove half money (which was in cash anyways waiting for cheap deals) and put it on the mortgage. Hmmm. Don't you hate it when outside of the market forces effect your decisions!
Anyways to make my point, if you find companies that you deem cheap why not look to see if selling puts on them could lower your price even further?
A few final thoughts. This has been a brutal month. It was only a few % and days away from being the worst month for the markets in the past 100 years. Sept 1931 will still stand for now as the late October rally stands. Horrible no good very bad market. To say this market is bad would be just slightly understating it.
I would like to put some money in the market by borrowing against my home equity. I am, or should i say my wife, not quite comfortable with this idea yet. One company i have on my radar is akt.a. This company is still making money with no debt, several dollars per share in cash.
I am part way through 'Common stocks uncommon profits' and find it a very intriguing book.
to be continued. ..
Go to Sedar and read what he does. That's it.
Oh and for a laugh read his annual letters @ Berkshire's website. Note the frills and gimmicks that this site offers!
What i am referring to is Warrens most recent action. He has been selling puts and lots of them. Now why would anyone 'sell' puts in a bear market you ask? Easy.
He as always is confident in his assessment in a company and bets just so. Instead of just paying market prices for Burlington Northern he just sells puts. Now he is getting these shares for less than current price.... or he just made some quick money with no money.
Now i don't have much money left to play with. I am in the same situation that Collectors Universe and Connacher Ceo's were recently. Well not exactly but i may as well be. Prices are so low and continue to fall. My wife is scared out of her wits and so i agree to remove half money (which was in cash anyways waiting for cheap deals) and put it on the mortgage. Hmmm. Don't you hate it when outside of the market forces effect your decisions!
Anyways to make my point, if you find companies that you deem cheap why not look to see if selling puts on them could lower your price even further?
A few final thoughts. This has been a brutal month. It was only a few % and days away from being the worst month for the markets in the past 100 years. Sept 1931 will still stand for now as the late October rally stands. Horrible no good very bad market. To say this market is bad would be just slightly understating it.
I would like to put some money in the market by borrowing against my home equity. I am, or should i say my wife, not quite comfortable with this idea yet. One company i have on my radar is akt.a. This company is still making money with no debt, several dollars per share in cash.
I am part way through 'Common stocks uncommon profits' and find it a very intriguing book.
to be continued. ..
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